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AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7000 during the Asian session on Friday, trading just below the previous day's monthly low amid diverging forces. A hawkish RBA continues to support the Aussie, while the recent decline in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed near a three-week low. However, oil-driven inflation fears reinforce Fed hike bets, which, along with geopolitical risks, could benefit the safe-haven buck and cap the currency pair.
USD/JPY rebounds from the 156.00 neighborhood, or a one-month low touched during Friday’s Asian session, with bulls looking to extend momentum beyond 157.00 amid the emergence of some US Dollar buying. Meanwhile, Japan's National CPI rose to a nine-month peak and reaffirmed BoJ rate-hike bets, which could support the Japanese Yen and cap gains for the currency pair.
Gold struggles to capitalize on its modest recovery from levels below the $4,000 psychological mark, or a three-month low set earlier this Friday, and retains a bearish tone through the first half of the European session. Federal Reserve officials recently signaled there is no urgency to raise interest rates. Traders, however, are still pricing in around an 80% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs again at its December policy meeting.
Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple rebound modestly on Friday after correcting and testing their key support zone the previous day. BTC holds the 50-day EMA, ETH finds support around the 100-day EMA, while XRP holds the horizontal floor near $1.300. The price action of these top three cryptocurrencies suggests a recovery if this critical support zone holds; a decisive close below these levels suggests a deeper correction.
The United States S&P Global preliminary Purchasing Managers Indices for October will be released on Friday, providing fresh insights into the health of the world's largest economy ahead of next week's Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting. The report includes the Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI and Composite PMI, which measure business activity across the private sector.
The USD faces a decisive period ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. While markets anticipate another interest rate increase from the Fed in December, the battle for control of Congress could reshape fiscal policy expectations and, indirectly, the path of US monetary policy in 2027.
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