GBP/USD rises above 1.2200 as Trump's team considers a gradual increase in tariffs

GBP/USD strengthens as US President-elect Donald Trump's economic team considering a gradual increase in import tariffs boosted investor confidence.
Trump's incoming administration evaluates a phased approach to implementing tariffs to avoid a sharp inflationary spike.
The US Dollar Index pulls back from 110.18, the highest level since November 2022.

Akhtar Faruqui FXStreet

GBP/USD breaks its five-day losing streak, rebounding from its 15-month low of 1.2099, recorded on Monday. The GBP/USD pair remains above 1.2200 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday as the Pound Sterling (GBP) gains ground amid improved investor confidence.

The increased investor confidence is attributed to reports about US President-elect Donald Trump's economic team considering a gradual increase in import tariffs boosted investor confidence. According to Bloomberg, Trump's incoming administration is evaluating a phased approach to implementing tariffs, aiming to prevent a sharp rise in inflation while managing trade policy adjustments.

However, the upside of the Pound Sterling could be limited due to concerns over stagflation in the United Kingdom (UK) amid persistent inflation and stagnant economic growth. Additionally, a recent surge in UK government bond yields has sparked worries about the country's fiscal health. Investors have been offloading UK gilts, driven by fears of mounting debt, sluggish growth, and inflation risks. These concerns contribute to the GBP’s relative weakness.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US Dollar’s performance against six major currencies, corrects downwards after reaching its highest level at 110.18 since November 2022. At the time of writing, the DXY maintains its position near 109.60. The USD gained strength following robust US labor market data for December, which is expected to support the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision to maintain interest rates at current levels in January.

Additionally, the reinforced hawkish sentiment surrounding the Fed’s policy outlook sparked a rise in US Treasury yields, with the 2-year yield reaching 4.42% and the 10-year yield rising to 4.80% as of Monday. The higher yields are helping the Greenback stay near recent highs. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) for December will take center stage due later on Tuesday.

Pound Sterling FAQs

What is the Pound Sterling?

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling?

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

How does economic data influence the value of the Pound?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound?

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Author

Akhtar Faruqui

FXStreet

Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India. With a keen eye for market trends and a passion for dissecting complex financial dynamics, he is dedicated to delivering accurate and insightful Forex news and analysis.

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