GBP/USD Price Forecast: Seems vulnerable below 1.3300 amid bullish USD, ahead of UK GDP

GBP/USD attracts sellers for the third straight day as the USD extends the post-US CPI rally.
Firming Fed hike bets and geopolitical risks lift the USD to its highest level since April 2025.
The bearish technical setup backs the case for an extension of the pair’s descending trend.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The GBP/USD pair drifts lower for the third straight day – also marking the fifth day of a negative move in the previous six – and drops to a fresh four-week low during the Asian session on Thursday. Spot prices currently trade just above mid-1.3200s and seem vulnerable amid the prevailing bullish sentiment surrounding the US Dollar (USD).

Following the release of hotter-than-expected US consumer inflation figures on Tuesday, hawkish comments from several Federal Reserve (Fed) officials reaffirmed market bets for an imminent rate hike. Moreover, traders have started pricing in the possibility of a jumbo 50-basis-point (bps) rate increase at the next FOMC meeting in December. This, along with Middle East uncertainties, lifts the USD to its highest level since April 2025 and turns out to be a key factor exerting pressure on the GBP/USD pair.

However, the Bank of England's (BoE) hawkish stance could offer some support to the British Pound (GBP) and help limit further losses. Traders also seem hesitant and opt to wait for the UK macro data dump, including the monthly and quarterly GDP reports, before positioning for the next leg of a directional move.

From a technical perspective, the overnight sustained break below the 1.3300 mark and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the upswing from October lows was seen as a key trigger for bearish traders. Moreover, spot prices hold beneath the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, at 1.3381, validating the negative outlook. This, along with the recent failed attempt to find acceptance above the 1.3500 mark, suggests that the path of least resistance for the GBP/USD pair remains to the downside.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in oversold territory near 26, hinting at stretched downside conditions but not yet showing a decisive recovery signal. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below zero with a negative reading and a subdued profile. This, in turn, backs the case for further losses towards the 78.6% Fibo. retracement at 1.3216, ahead of the next relevant support and the structural floor defined by the recent cycle low near 1.3138.

On the topside, any corrective bounce would first confront resistance at the 61.8% retracement at 1.3278, followed by the 50% level at 1.3321 and the 38.2% retracement at 1.3364. Further up, the 100-period SMA at 1.3381 and the 23.6% retracement at 1.3417 reinforce a broader cap, while the GBP/USD pair remains below this cluster.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

GBP/USD 4-hour chart

Economic Indicator

Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly and quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in the UK during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of UK economic activity. The QoQ reading compares economic activity in the reference quarter to the previous quarter. Generally, a rise in this indicator is bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

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