GBP/USD price Forecast: Rally halts near 61.8% Fibo retracement at 1.3600

GBP/USD falls to near 1.3545 as the US Dollar recovers despite market sentiment remaining risk-on.
There has been no announcement of the second round of US-Iran talks.
UK monthly GDP grew strongly by 0.5% in February.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

The GBP/USD pair trades 0.1% lower to near 1.3545 during the European trading session on Thursday, struggling to extend the rally above the 1.3600 hurdle. The Cable faces slight selling pressure as the US Dollar (USD) turns positive after recovering early losses, despite market sentiment remaining risk-on.

At press time, S&P 500 futures trade 0.2% higher around 7,070, reflecting an upbeat market mood. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.15% higher to near 98.20.

Market sentiment remains favorable for riskier assets amid firm hopes that the United States (US) and Iran would announce a permanent ceasefire soon. However, there is no announcement of a date for another round of talks between the two nations.

Pakistan’s foreign ministry stated earlier in the day on Thursday that dates for another round of talks between the United States (US) and Iran regarding the permanent ceasefire have not been finalized yet.

On the domestic front, the United Kingdom (UK) monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for February has come in stronger than projected. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has reported that the economy expanded at a 0.5% pace, while it was expected to remain steady at 0.1%.

GBP/USD technical analysis

GBP/USD trades lower at around 1.3545 as of writing. The pair holds above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.3410 and has reclaimed the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.3162–1.3872 swing at 1.3517, which together suggest a constructive near-term bias.

The Relative Strength Index (14) at 61.4 leans bullish without yet flagging overbought conditions, hinting that upside momentum is still in play while the price action consolidates after the recent advance.

On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3601, ahead of the 78.6% level at 1.3720 and the cycle high near the 100.0% retracement at 1.3872. Looking down, initial support is provided by the 50.0% retracement at 1.3517, followed by the 38.2% level at 1.3433 and the 20-day EMA at 1.3410; a deeper pullback could expose the 23.6% retracement at 1.3329 before the structural floor around 1.3162.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Economic Indicator

Gross Domestic Product (MoM)

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly and quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in the UK during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of UK economic activity. The MoM reading compares economic activity in the reference month to the previous month. Generally, a rise in this indicator is bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

AUD/USD hangs below mid-0.7100s amid bullish USD, ahead of China data

AUD/USD remains on the back foot during the Asian session on Tuesday, close to an over three-week low touched the previous day. US bond yields hold near multi-year highs ahead of the FOMC meeting and oil-driven inflation risks, supporting the US Dollar and weighing on the currency pair. However, rising RBA rate-hike bets could limit deeper losses for the Aussie ahead of Chinese data.

USD/JPY sticks to gains near mid-154.00s as traders await Fed/BoJ meetings

USD/JPY attracts some buyers for the second straight day on Tuesday, though it remains below a one-week high touched the previous day as traders await the FOMC and BoJ meetings this week. Meanwhile, Fed rate-hike bets and oil-driven inflation risks keep US bond yields near multi-year highs, supporting the US Dollar and the currency pair. That said, a more hawkish repricing of the BoJ normalization path might continue to underpin the Japanese Yen and cap spot prices.

Gold seems vulnerable below $4,300 as traders await FOMC meeting

Gold struggles below $4,300 during the Asian session on Tuesday and remains vulnerable near a one-month low, touched the previous day. Fed rate-hike expectations and inflation concerns remain supportive of elevated US bond yields, underpinning the US Dollar and weighing on the non-yielding bullion. Bears, however, might wait for the outcome of a two-day FOMC meeting on Wednesday before placing fresh bets.

WTI rises above $98.50 amid Middle East supply fears

West Texas Intermediate oil price extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around $98.60 per barrel during the Asian hours on Tuesday. Crude oil prices appreciate as traders continue to navigate heightened uncertainty over global supply.

Hard assets are entering their next explosive phase – Are you positioned?

It’s official: Commodities and Hard Assets have become the best-performing asset class of 2026. In a year defined by persistent inflation, geopolitical conflict, rising sovereign debt and intensifying supply disruption, capital is rotating aggressively into the one area governments cannot print and central banks cannot manufacture: scarce physical assets.

Venezuela’s 65-billion-barrel Oil deal could reshape America’s inflation fight

The United States (US) has secured unprecedented access to part of Venezuela’s vast Oil reserves. The timing is particularly significant as the war with Iran is disrupting Middle Eastern supplies, keeping energy prices elevated and reviving concerns about inflation.