GBP/USD holds below 1.2600 as US PCE inflation data looms

GBP/USD edges lower to around 1.2580 in Friday’s early European session.
Trump’s tariff threats weigh on the Pound Sterling.
Investors brace for the US January PCE inflation data, which is due later on Friday.

Lallalit Srijandorn FXStreet

The GBP/USD pair extends its downside to near 1.2580 during the early European session on Friday. Tariff uncertainty from US President Donald Trump undermines the Pound Sterling (GBP) against the US Dollar (USD). The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for January will be the highlight later on Friday.

Trump met with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer late Thursday, and President Trump was quick to announce that there might be trade tariffs imposed on the UK as well unless ambiguous terms of a trade deal with the US are agreed upon within an undetermined deadline. Investors will closely watch the developments surrounding further Trump’s policies. Any signs of escalating trade tensions could lift the Greenback and create a headwind for GBP/USD.

Data released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on Thursday showed that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded at an annual rate of 2.3% in the fourth quarter (Q4). This figure matched the initial estimate and came in line with the market consensus.

Looking ahead, investors will take more cues on the US PCE inflation data for January, which is due on Friday. This report could influence market speculation for the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy outlook. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the markets are now pricing in nearly 68% odds that the Fed will cut its interest rate in the June policy meeting after holding them in the March and May meetings.

Pound Sterling FAQs

What is the Pound Sterling?

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling?

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

How does economic data influence the value of the Pound?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound?

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Author

Lallalit Srijandorn

FXStreet

Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.

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