- GBP/USD pulled into the middle on Monday as markets quiet back down.
- Near-term volatility spikes have given way to easy waters.
- Key UK and US inflation data lie ahead in the middle of the week.
GBP/USD continued to flatten out on Monday, trading in place and testing key technical levels as markets buckle down for the wait to a midweek inflation data outing. Recent volatility that saw Cable drop back to long-run averages below 1.2700 have eased into the background for now, and investors will be pivoting to face a round of key inflation prints on both sides of the Atlantic due in the midweek.
Forex Today: UK jobs report and US Producer Prices… for starters
US Producer Price Index (PPI) business-level inflation figures are due on Tuesday. The forecast indicates a decrease in core PPI to 2.7% from 3.0%. On Wednesday, YoY core CPI inflation is expected to drop to 3.2% from 3.3%. Market sentiment relies on a balanced inflation outcome for equities to perform well.
On the UK side, an easy Monday gives way to a packed economic release calendar, with UK unemployment claims on Tuesday and UK CPI inflation slated for Wednesday. Core UK CPI inflation is expected to tick down to 3.4% YoY from 3.5%, while headline CPI inflation is forecast to rise to 2.3% YoY from 2.0%.
Economic Indicator
Claimant Count Change
The Claimant Count Change released by the UK Office for National Statistics presents the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK claiming benefits. There is a tendency for the metric to influence GBP volatility. Usually, a rise in the indicator has negative implications for consumer spending and economic growth. Generally, a high reading is seen as bearish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bullish.
Read more.Next release: Tue Aug 13, 2024 06:00
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 14.5K
Previous: 32.3K
Source: Office for National Statistics
The change in the number of those claiming jobless benefits is an early gauge of the UK’s labor market. The figures are released for the previous month, contrary to the Unemployment Rate, which is for the prior one. This release is scheduled around the middle of the month. An increase in applications is a sign of a worsening economic situation and implies looser monetary policy, while a decrease indicates improving conditions. A higher-than-expected outcome tends to be GBP-bearish.
GBP/USD price forecast
Cable continues to tease a bearish fall back into the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.2649, but bidders have thus far stepped up to keep bids from falling any closer toward the 1.2600 handle. However, bullish momentum has evaporated as GBP/USD remains down over 2% from 12-month peaks just above 1.3000 set in July.
GBP/USD daily chart
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, aka ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD stays defensive below 1.1050, as US NFP data looms
EUR/USD stays defensive below1.1050 in the European morning on Friday. The pair lacks a clear directional impetus, as traders refrain from placing fresh bets ahead of the key US Nonfarm Payrolls data. The focus remains on ECB-speak as well.
GBP/USD recovers to near 1.3150 ahead of US NFP data
GBP/USD has recovered ground to near 1.3150 heading into the European opening bells on Friday. The further upside, however, appears elusive, as traders brace for the highly-anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls data for fresh cues on the Fed interest rate outlook.
Gold: Will US Nonfarm Payrolls drive XAU/USD to fresh record highs?
Gold price extends a side trend below the key $2,670 resistance amid the Israel-Iran conflict. The US Dollar eases off six-week highs, as traders reposition ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls data.
Nonfarm Payrolls set to grow moderately in September as markets mull bets of another big Fed rate cut
Economists expect the Nonfarm Payrolls report to show that the US economy added 140,000 jobs in September, following a job gain of 142,000 reported in August.
RBA widely expected to keep key interest rate unchanged amid persisting price pressures
The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to continue bucking the trend adopted by major central banks of the dovish policy pivot, opting to maintain the policy for the seventh consecutive meeting on Tuesday.
Five best Forex brokers in 2024
VERIFIED Choosing the best Forex broker in 2024 requires careful consideration of certain essential factors. With the wide array of options available, it is crucial to find a broker that aligns with your trading style, experience level, and financial goals.