GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Ascending Triangle formation reflects broader consolidation

GBP/JPY flattens around 210.85 as investors await the outcome of Trump’s Tuesday ultimatum.
US President Trump threatens to assault Iranian infrastructure if it doesn’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Both the BoE and the BoJ are unlikely to reduce interest rates in the near term.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

The GBP/JPY pair trades almost flat at around 210.85 during the early European trading session on Monday. The pair consolidates as investors await fresh cues on the future of the Strait of Hormuz, a passage to almost 20% of global oil supply, being seized by Iran amid the ongoing war in the Middle East.

United States (US) President Donald Trump has threatened to destroy Iranian power plants and bridges if Tehran doesn’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday, 08:00 PM Eastern time (ET).

Meanwhile, a spokesperson from the Iranian foreign ministry has warned of reciprocal attacks on related US facilities.

Given that both the United Kingdom (UK) and Japan are net energy importers, higher oil prices are an unfavorable situation for them.

On the monetary front, both the Bank of England (BoE) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) are unlikely to cut interest rates in the near term as higher oil prices have prompted global inflation expectations.

GBP/JPY technical analysis

GBP/JPY trades flat at around 210.90 as of writing. The near-term bias is neutral with a slight downside tilt, as price fluctuates just below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 211.50, losing upside momentum seen earlier in the month. The pair is compressed between an ascending support trend line from 207.26 and a descending resistance line from 213.38, indicating an emerging ascending consolidation rather than a clear trend extension.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) inside the 40.00-60.00 signals volatility contraction, aligning with the rangebound tone and capping directional conviction for now.

Initial resistance emerges at the descending trend line near 213.40, with a daily close above this area needed to challenge the February high at 215.00. On the downside, immediate support is located at the March 2 low around 209.00, followed by the February 17 low at 207.24.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

(This story was corrected at 06:30 GMT to say in the second paragraph that the deadline for Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz is Tuesday 08:00 ET not 09:00 ET).

Author

Sagar Dua

FXStreet

Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.

GBP/USD faces daily resistance near 1.3650

GBP/USD resumes its decline, reversing Tuesday’s bullish attempt and failing once again to break above 1.3650. Cable’s decent pullback follows an acceptable advance in the Greenback as investors continue to assess latest US PCE and GDP data.

EUR/USD remains sidelined around 1.1670 post US-PCE

EUR/USD alternates gains with losses around 1.1670 on Wednesday. The pair’s retracement comes on the back of modest gains in the US Dollar in the wake of the release of July PCE data and another revision of Q2 GDP figures.

Gold surrenders some weekly gains; back toward $4,600

Gold now faces some renewed downside pressure and seems to challenge the key $4,600 mark per troy ounce on Tuesday. That said, the yellow metal’s correction comes after three daily upticks in a row, fading at the same time Tuesday’s move to fresh tops around $4,700.

Bitcoin recovery stalls near $80,000 as ETF inflows mount, whale demand strengthens

Bitcoin price is trading in the green on Wednesday, holding above $78,000 while struggling to extend its recovery above the $80,000 mark. Institutional demand is strengthening, with steady inflows and BlackRock’s tax-deferred Bitcoin-to-ETF swap volume reaching $5 billion.

Nvidia: How will the company perform as its switches from a chip maker to an AI finance house?

The main event for markets this week takes place this evening, after US markets close. Nvidia, the AI giant, will report results for last quarter. Another monster report is expected. Revenues could come in above $92bn, and earnings per share could come in at $2.09.

Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole dilemma: Say too much, too little, or just enough

Kevin Warsh is preparing to deliver his first Jackson Hole speech as Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair on Friday, and expectations extend well beyond whether interest rates will be raised or left unchanged in September.