Forex Today: US Dollar weakens to start week as markets await PMI data
Here is what you need to know on Monday, June 2:
The US Dollar (USD) weakens against its major rivals on the first trading day of June. In the second half of the day, the US economic calendar will feature the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers (PMI) data for May. Market participants will also pay close attention to comments from central bank officials.
US Dollar PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.49% | -0.52% | -0.44% | -0.33% | -0.58% | -0.75% | -0.43% | |
| EUR | 0.49% | -0.04% | 0.07% | 0.15% | -0.08% | -0.30% | 0.06% | |
| GBP | 0.52% | 0.04% | 0.12% | 0.19% | -0.04% | -0.26% | 0.09% | |
| JPY | 0.44% | -0.07% | -0.12% | 0.11% | -0.14% | -0.33% | -0.07% | |
| CAD | 0.33% | -0.15% | -0.19% | -0.11% | -0.25% | -0.45% | -0.10% | |
| AUD | 0.58% | 0.08% | 0.04% | 0.14% | 0.25% | -0.15% | 0.23% | |
| NZD | 0.75% | 0.30% | 0.26% | 0.33% | 0.45% | 0.15% | 0.35% | |
| CHF | 0.43% | -0.06% | -0.09% | 0.07% | 0.10% | -0.23% | -0.35% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The USD Index, which gauges the USD's performance against a basket of six major currencies, ended the previous week marginally higher. The data published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis showed on Friday that the annual inflation in the United States (US), as measured by the change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, declined to 2.1% in April from 2.3% in March.
Early Monday, the USD Index stays in negative territory slightly below 99.00. Meanwhile, US stock index futures were last seen losing between 0.5% and 0.7% on the day, reflecting a cautious market mood at the start of the week. Escalating geopolitical tensions on news of Ukraine carrying out a large scale drone attack against Russian military bombers in Siberia seem to be weighing on risk sentiment.
Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba reiterated early Monday that Japan will not back down in its request to reduce tariffs. On Thursday, Japan's Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa is expected to hold discussions with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. USD/JPY stays under bearish pressure early Monday and trades below 143.50.
EUR/USD gains traction in the European morning and trades near 1.1400. The European economic calendar will feature revisions to the Eurozone and Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI data for May.
Following Friday's modest decline, GBP/USD turns north on Monday and trades comfortably above 1.3500. The Bank of England (BoE) will publish Mortgage Approvals data for April.
Gold benefits from the risk-averse market atmosphere and registers strong gains early Monday. XAU/USD was last seen trading slightly below $3,350, rising more than 1.5% on a daily basis.
The data from Switzerland showed on Monday that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded at an annual rate of 2% in the second quarter. This reading surpassed the market expectation of 1.5%. USD/CHF edges lower following the upbeat data and trades slightly below 0.8200.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
Author
Eren Sengezer
FXStreet
As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.
