Forex Today: US Dollar rebounds as mood sours after Trump remarks
Here is what you need to know on Thursday, April 2:
Once again, safe-haven flows returned to markets early Thursday after United States (US) President Donald Trump's remarks on the Middle East conflict failed to convince investors of a quick end to the war against Iran. Reflecting the risk-averse market atmosphere, US stock index futures lose between 1.2% and 1.8% in the European morning, while the US Dollar (USD) rises about 0.5% above 100.00.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.49% | 0.66% | 0.48% | 0.27% | 0.74% | 0.72% | 0.63% | |
| EUR | -0.49% | 0.17% | -0.02% | -0.24% | 0.26% | 0.25% | 0.13% | |
| GBP | -0.66% | -0.17% | -0.17% | -0.39% | 0.10% | 0.12% | -0.05% | |
| JPY | -0.48% | 0.02% | 0.17% | -0.21% | 0.26% | 0.24% | 0.12% | |
| CAD | -0.27% | 0.24% | 0.39% | 0.21% | 0.47% | 0.44% | 0.33% | |
| AUD | -0.74% | -0.26% | -0.10% | -0.26% | -0.47% | -0.02% | -0.17% | |
| NZD | -0.72% | -0.25% | -0.12% | -0.24% | -0.44% | 0.02% | -0.13% | |
| CHF | -0.63% | -0.13% | 0.05% | -0.12% | -0.33% | 0.17% | 0.13% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
US President Trump claimed that Iran is "no longer a threat" and added that they will hit Iran "extremely hard" over the next two to three weeks. "We have not needed Hormuz Strait and we do not need it," he added and argued that the Strait will open up naturally once the conflict is over. Crude oil prices rise sharply following a two-day decline. At the time of press, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was trading near $101, rising about 7% on a daily basis.
The US economic calendar will feature Goods Trade Balance data for February and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the weekly Initial Jobless Claims data. On Friday, market attention will shift to the official employment report, which will feature Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), the Unemployment Rate and wage inflation figures for March.
The data from the US showed on Wednesday that employment in the private sector rose by 62K, beating the market expectation for an increase of 40K. Additionally, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) improved to 52.7 in March from 52.4 in February. The Prices Paid Index of the PMI survey, the inflation component, rose sharply to 78.3 from 70.5.
Gold stays under heavy bearish pressure and trades below $4,600, losing more than 3% on a daily basis.
EUR/USD turns south following a two-day rally and loses about 0.5% on the day below 1.1550 in the European morning on Thursday.
GBP/USD continues to push lower after losing its traction in the Asian session and trades below 1.3250, down about 0.6% on a daily basis.
USD/JPY gathers bullish momentum and climbs toward 159.50 after closing virtually unchanged on Wednesday.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
(This story was corrected on April 2 at 10:28 GMT to note that the US data were released on Wednesday, not Thursday.)
Author
Eren Sengezer
FXStreet
As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.
