Forex Today: Risk rally loses momentum as Iran denies dialogue with US
Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, March 24:
Markets adopt a cautious stance early Tuesday following the volatile action seen at the beginning of the week. The economic calendar will feature preliminary March Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data from Germany, the Eurozone, the UK and the US on Tuesday.
US Dollar Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.58% | -0.85% | -0.52% | 0.14% | 0.12% | -0.50% | -0.19% | |
| EUR | 0.58% | -0.27% | 0.11% | 0.73% | 0.69% | 0.08% | 0.40% | |
| GBP | 0.85% | 0.27% | 0.32% | 1.00% | 0.99% | 0.35% | 0.60% | |
| JPY | 0.52% | -0.11% | -0.32% | 0.62% | 0.62% | -0.03% | 0.22% | |
| CAD | -0.14% | -0.73% | -1.00% | -0.62% | 0.00% | -0.64% | -0.33% | |
| AUD | -0.12% | -0.69% | -0.99% | -0.62% | -0.00% | -0.63% | -0.38% | |
| NZD | 0.50% | -0.08% | -0.35% | 0.03% | 0.64% | 0.63% | 0.26% | |
| CHF | 0.19% | -0.40% | -0.60% | -0.22% | 0.33% | 0.38% | -0.26% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
US President Donald Trump announced on Monday that they will postpone any military strikes against Iran's power plants following "good and productive conversations." With the immediate reaction to this development, risk flows started to dominate the action in financial markets. In turn, the US Dollar (USD) came under heavy selling pressure, US stock index futures turned north and Oil prices declined sharply. Later in the American session, Iran's foreign ministry said that there was "no dialogue" between Tehran and Washington. Additionally, the White House noted that the situation is “fluid" and added that "speculation about meetings should not be deemed as final until they are formally announced by the White House."
In the European morning on Tuesday, US stock index futures trade in negative territory, while the USD Index clings to small gains above 99.00. After losing more than 9% on Monday, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) recovers toward $90, rising about 1.5% on the day.
Gold (XAU/USD) slumped to a fresh 2026-low near $4,100 early Monday but erased a large portion of its daily losses before ending the day near $4,400. XAU/USD stays in a consolidation phase in the European session and fluctuates in a narrow channel slightly above $4,400.
The data from Australia showed earlier in the day that the S&P Global Composite PMI declined to 47 in March's flash reading from 52.4 in February, highlighting a contraction in private sector's business activity. AUD/USD stays under modest bearish pressure early Tuesday and trades slightly below 0.7000.
USD/JPY moves sideways near 158.50 after closing in the red on Monday. Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI dropped to 51.4 in March from 53 and the Services PMI edged lower to 52.8 from 53.8. Other data from Japan showed that the National Consumer Price Index rose 1.3% on a yearly basis in February, following the 1.5% increase recorded in January.
EUR/USD benefited from the broad USD weakness on Monday and touched its highest level in over 10 days at 1.1640. The pair corrects lower early Tuesday but manages to hold above 1.1600.
GBP/USD enters a consolidation phase early Tuesday and trades above 1.3400 after rising more than 0.6% on Monday.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
Author
Eren Sengezer
FXStreet
As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.
