Forex Today: Focus shifts to Eurozone GDP and US inflation data
Here is what you need to know on Friday, February 13:
The US Dollar (USD) Index stages a modest rebound early Friday after struggling to find direction in the second half of the week. In the European session, Eurostat will publish the preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the fourth quarter. Later in the day, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January will be watched closely by market participants.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.15% | 0.14% | 0.46% | 0.12% | 0.45% | 0.15% | 0.17% | |
| EUR | -0.15% | -0.00% | 0.33% | -0.03% | 0.31% | 0.00% | 0.02% | |
| GBP | -0.14% | 0.00% | 0.31% | -0.02% | 0.31% | 0.00% | 0.03% | |
| JPY | -0.46% | -0.33% | -0.31% | -0.32% | 0.00% | -0.31% | -0.29% | |
| CAD | -0.12% | 0.03% | 0.02% | 0.32% | 0.32% | 0.00% | 0.05% | |
| AUD | -0.45% | -0.31% | -0.31% | 0.00% | -0.32% | -0.31% | -0.29% | |
| NZD | -0.15% | -0.00% | -0.01% | 0.31% | -0.01% | 0.31% | 0.02% | |
| CHF | -0.17% | -0.02% | -0.03% | 0.29% | -0.05% | 0.29% | -0.02% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The USD Index fluctuated in a narrow range on Thursday and ended the day virtually unchanged. During the Asian trading hours on Friday, the USD started to gather strength after the Financial Times reported, citing people familiar with discussions, that US President Donald Trump was planning to roll back some tariffs on steel and aluminium. At the time of pres, the USD Index was trading in positive territory above 97.00, while US stock index futures were down between 0.1% and 0.2%. Annual inflation, as measured by the change in the CPI, is forecast to soften to 2.5% in January from 2.7% in December.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) monetary conditions survey showed on Friday that two-year inflation expectations, seen as the time frame when RBNZ policy action will filter through to prices, rose to 2.37% from 2.28% seen in the last quarter of 2025. NZD/USD stays under modest bearis pressure early Friday and declines toward 0.6000.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Naoki Tamura said on Friday that even if the central bank raises the policy rate further, monetary conditions will remain accommodative. After closing in negative territory for four consecutive days, USD/JPY gains traction and recovers toward 153.50 in the European morning on Friday.
EUR/USD stays on the back foot and declines to the 1.1850 area after failing to stabilize above 1.1900 earlier in the week. The Eurozone GDP is projected to expand at an annual rate of 1.3% in the fourth quarter.
GBP/USD edges lower early Friday and trades near 1.3600. Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill is scheduled to speak at event in London later in the day.
Gold came under heavy selling pressure in the American session on Thursday and lost more than 3% on a daily basis. XAU/USD holds its ground in the European morning but remains below $5,000.
Inflation FAQs
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
Author
Eren Sengezer
FXStreet
As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.
