Forecasting the upcoming week: Hormuz uncertainty keeps markets on edge as USD softens
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is losing momentum near 98.00 as safe-haven demand fades on the reopening news, but downside remains limited amid lingering geopolitical risks.
Markets are experiencing fluctuations between relief and renewed caution as developments around the Strait of Hormuz continue to evolve. Earlier reports confirmed that this vital Oil chokepoint is “fully open and ready for full passage,” alleviating fears about prolonged supply disruptions.
However, new developments are complicating the situation. Reports suggest that Iran may consider closing the Strait of Hormuz again if the United States maintains its naval blockade, warning that such an action would be viewed as a violation of the ceasefire.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Euro.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.09% | -0.17% | -0.59% | -0.23% | -0.31% | -0.16% | -0.49% | |
| EUR | 0.09% | -0.08% | -0.52% | -0.15% | -0.22% | -0.08% | -0.42% | |
| GBP | 0.17% | 0.08% | -0.45% | -0.07% | -0.14% | 0.01% | -0.32% | |
| JPY | 0.59% | 0.52% | 0.45% | 0.37% | 0.28% | 0.42% | 0.09% | |
| CAD | 0.23% | 0.15% | 0.07% | -0.37% | -0.08% | 0.05% | -0.26% | |
| AUD | 0.31% | 0.22% | 0.14% | -0.28% | 0.08% | 0.15% | -0.19% | |
| NZD | 0.16% | 0.08% | -0.01% | -0.42% | -0.05% | -0.15% | -0.34% | |
| CHF | 0.49% | 0.42% | 0.32% | -0.09% | 0.26% | 0.19% | 0.34% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD is pushing higher toward the 1.1790 region, benefiting from the softer USD tone, although gains remain capped by cautious sentiment and mixed Eurozone data.
GBP/USD is also advancing near the 1.3550 level, supported by improved risk appetite as the pair attempts to recover recent losses amid a reassessment of global risks.
USD/JPY fell near the 158.20 price zone as the Japanese Yen (JPY) finds some support from residual safe-haven demand.
AUD/USD was one of the top performers earlier in the day, rallying sharply toward the 0.7200 region but later easing to near the 0.7180 price zone. Oil shock fears and improved global sentiment favor commodity-linked currencies.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil sharply declined to near the $83.00 per barrel, lower after the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as supply concerns ease and risk premiums unwind. Still, prices remain vulnerable to sudden spikes if geopolitical tensions resurface.
Gold surged toward $4,865, even after safe-haven demand weakened amid ongoing uncertainty and the risk of renewed escalation in the Middle East.
Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon
Tuesday, April 21:
- ECB’s Nagel speech
- ECB’s De Guindos speech
- Fed’s Waller speech
Wednesday, April 22:
- ECB’s Elderson speech
- ECB’s Lane speech
- BoE’s Breeden speech
- ECB’s Lane speech
- ECB’s Cipollone speech
- ECB’s Sleijpen speech
- ECB’s Nagel speech
- ECB’s President Lagarde speech
Thursday, April 23:
- ECB’s Nagel speech
Friday, April 24:
- SNB Chairman Schlegel's speech
Central banks' meetings and upcoming data releases to shape
Monday, April 20:
- China PBoC Interest Rate Decision
- Germany PPI March
- Canada CPIs
- Canada BoC Business Outlook Survey
- New Zealand Business Confidence Q1
- New Zealand CPI Q1
Tuesday, April 21:
- United Kingdom Labor Market Data
- Germany ZEW Survey April
- Eurozone ZEW Survey April
- United States ADP Employment Change 4-week average
- United States Retail Sales March
- United States Pending Home Sales March
- Japan Trade Balance March
- Japan Exports March
- Japan Imports March
Wednesday, April 22:
- United Kingdom Inflation Data March
- Eurozone Consumer Confidence April Prel
- Australia S&P Global PMIs April Prel
Thursday, April 23:
- Eurozone ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting
- France HCOB PMIs April Prel
- Germany HCOB PMIs April Prel
- Eurozone HCOB PMIs April Prel
- United Kingdom S&P Global PMIs April Prel
- United States Initial Jobless Claims
- United States S&P Global PMIs April Prel
- United States New Home Sales March
- United Kingdom GfK Consumer Confidence April
- Japan Inflation Data March
Friday, April 24:
- United Kingdom Retail Sales March
- Germany IFO Survey April
- Canada Retail Sales February
- United States Michigan Data April
- United States Inflation Expectations April
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Author
Agustin Wazne
FXStreet
Agustin Wazne joined FXStreet as a Junior News Editor, focusing on Commodities and covering Majors.
