Fed’s Kugler: Central bank should hold policy rate in place for some time
Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler said late Thursday that US inflation still has "some way to go" to reach the central bank's 2% target and that its path toward that goal continues to be bumpy, per Reuters.
Key quotes
I see this as appropriate, given that the downward risks to employment have diminished but upside risks to inflation remain.
The potential net effect of new economic policies remains highly uncertain and will depend on the breadth, duration, reactions to, and, importantly, specifics of the measures adopted.
Going forward, in considering the appropriate federal funds rate, we will watch these developments closely and continue to carefully assess the incoming data and evolving outlook.We pay attention to layoffs in all sectors, it's part of the Fed's mandate.
There is currently a lot of uncertainty about the potential effect of Trump's tariffs.
Looking at potential scenarios on tariff impacts.
Tariffs could put up price pressures, but the extent is much less known.
It is unknown how much tariffs will be passed through to consumers at higher prices.
To assess tariff effects, "we have to wait”.
Market reaction
At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading 0.02% lower on the day to trade at 106.33.
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
Author
Lallalit Srijandorn
FXStreet
Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.
