The Fed is aiming for three rate cuts, in the view of economists at Rabobank.

The Fed will halt its cutting cycle during the course of 2025

March’s meeting strengthened our expectation that the FOMC will make three rate cuts this year. By stressing the other possible reason to cut, a weakening labor market, it is clear that the Fed is aiming for three rate cuts, either because of greater confidence that inflation is sustainably heading toward 2% or because unemployment rises. 

Nevertheless, there remains a narrow path to the FOMC remaining on hold for longer. There is still a risk that the Committee starts its cutting cycle later than June. However, we continue to pencil in the first rate cut in June. Once started, we expect the Fed to continue with one cut of 25 bps per quarter until a rebound in inflation caused by a universal import tariff imposed by a new Trump administration will cause the Fed to halt its cutting cycle during the course of 2025.

 

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD retreats below 1.0700 as USD rebounds

EUR/USD retreats below 1.0700 as USD rebounds

EUR/USD lost its traction and retreated slightly below 1.0700 in the American session, erasing its daily gains in the process. Following a bearish opening, the US Dollar holds its ground and limits the pair's upside ahead of the Fed policy meeting later this week.

EUR/USD News

USD/JPY recovers toward 157.00 following suspected intervention

USD/JPY recovers toward 157.00 following suspected intervention

USD/JPY recovers ground and trades above 156.50 after sliding to 154.50 on what seemed like a Japanese FX intervention. Later this week, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions and US employment data could trigger the next big action.

USD/JPY News

Gold holds steady above $2,330 to start the week

Gold holds steady above $2,330 to start the week

Gold fluctuates in a relatively tight channel above $2,330 on Monday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield corrects lower and helps XAU/USD limit its losses ahead of this week's key Fed policy meeting.

Gold News

Week Ahead: Bitcoin could surprise investors this week Premium

Week Ahead: Bitcoin could surprise investors this week

Two main macroeconomic events this week could attempt to sway the crypto markets. Bitcoin (BTC), which showed strength last week, has slipped into a short-term consolidation. 

Read more

Five Fundamentals for the week: Fed fears, Nonfarm Payrolls, Middle East promise an explosive week Premium

Five Fundamentals for the week: Fed fears, Nonfarm Payrolls, Middle East promise an explosive week

Higher inflation is set to push Fed Chair Powell and his colleagues to a hawkish decision. Nonfarm Payrolls are set to rock markets, but the ISM Services PMI released immediately afterward could steal the show.

Read more

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures