Fed: The environment may not be very conducive to tapering in late 2021 and 2022 – Natixis


The Federal Reserve’s statements suggest that it will reduce the size of its asset purchases from the end of 2021; those from the European Central Bank suggest that it will reduce them in 2022. If, in late 2021 and in 2022, there is a slowdown in growth and significant disinflation then it will be difficult for the Fed and the ECB to justify tapering, analysts at Natixis report.

The fresh COVID-19 wave in the US from summer 2021

“The first obstacle to tapering concerns the US in particular: the rising number of COVID-19 cases due to a wave of the Delta variant, which is weakening the economy: declining production prospects, household confidence, job creation.”

The risk of a growth slowdown in late 2021 and in 2022

“Growth at the end of 2021 and in 2022 may be slowed by the likely reduction in fiscal deficits between 2021 and 2022, the fall in real wages in 2021 and commodity supply bottlenecks, which are holding back growth in several sectors.”

Disinflation, which could be significant between 2021 and 2022

“The central banks are forecasting significant disinflation between 2021 and 2022, but it could even be more pronounced, given the absence of a rise in unit labour costs and a change of the sign of the base effect of commodity prices, which, after having risen significantly between 2020 and 2021, will fall (even if only slightly) between 2021 and 2022.”

“As has been all but announced, especially in the United States, the solution may be a partial and conditional tapering of securities purchases.”

 

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Feed news

Latest Forex News


Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD rebounds to 1.1350 on modest dollar weakness

EUR/USD regained its traction after declining toward 1.1320 during the European session and rose to 1.1350 area. The dollar's is facing modest selling pressure amid falling US Treasury bond yields and allowing the pair to continue to edge higher ahead of the weekend.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD struggles to pull away from 10-day low set near 1.3550

GBP/USD fell toward 1.3550 on Friday and touched its weakest level in 10 days. Although the US Dollar Index stays in the negative territory in the early American session, the risk-averse market environment doesn't allow the pair to stage a convincing recovery.

GBP/USD News

Gold reclaims $1,840 amid falling US T-bond yields

Gold reversed its direction after testing $1,830 earlier in the day and turned positive on the day above $1,840. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield is losing more than 3% at 1.75%, fueling XAU/USD's rebound.

Gold News

BTC may capitulate to $30,000

Bitcoin price has dropped considerably over the last three weeks. The recent downswing has made things worse for BTC and hints that a steep correction could be on its way.

Read more

Will the Netflix stock price rebound?

Netflix stock edged down after better than expected Q4 results. Will the Netflix stock price rebound? Expectations of rising subscription and higher prices are bullish for Netflix stock price.

Read more

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures