In the euro area, the important July HICP and GDP figures are due to be released, after headline inflation surged from 1.1% y/y in February to 2.0% y/y in June, points out the research team at Danske Bank.
“We estimate the July figure at 2.1%. However, the rise has been driven mainly by energy prices, leaving core inflation hovering around 0.9-1.1% y/y in the period from February to June. In July, we expect core inflation to have risen to 1.1%.”
“After a strong 2017, growth in Q1 18 moderated to 0.4% q/q. We expect a continued soft landing as indicated by recent activity indicators. Q2 18 PMI suggests growth remains around 0.4% q/q.”
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