Euro sticks to positive bias above 1.1400 vs USD; Mideast tensions cap gains

EUR/USD trades with a positive bias for the second straight day, though it lacks bullish conviction.
The USD remains on the defensive in the absence of a hawkish surprise from the FOMC Minutes.
Rising US-Iran tensions offer some support to the safe-haven USD, capping the upside for the pair.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The EUR/USD pair attracts some buyers for the second straight day, though it lacks follow-through and remains confined within the previous day's range during the Asian session on Thursday. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.1420 area, up less than 0.10% for the day, and remain at the mercy of the US Dollar (USD) price dynamics.

The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, remains on the defensive below the weekly top, touched on Wednesday, amid reduced expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes. Against the backdrop of last week's soft US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, the Minutes of the June 16-17 FOMC meeting revealed that policymakers noted high uncertainty about the outlook on interest rates.

However, Fed officials indicated that some policy firming would likely be warranted to return inflation to 2%. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are still pricing in around a 70% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs in September. This, along with a fresh escalation of tensions between the US and Iran, acts as a tailwind for the safe-haven USD and acts as a headwind for the EUR/USD pair.

The US military unleashed a new wave of strikes against Iran in retaliation for Tehran’s attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran retaliated by targeting approximately 85 US military installations and assets across Bahrain and Kuwait. Adding to this, US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that the memorandum of understanding with Iran aimed at ending the conflict in the Middle East is now over.

Meanwhile, European Central Bank (ECB) rate hike bets have recently faced downward pressure in the wake of an unexpected fall in Eurozone inflation. This might hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets on the shared currency, which could further cap gains for the EUR/USD pair. Traders now look to the release of ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts and the US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims for a fresh impetus.

Euro FAQs

What is the Euro?

The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro?

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro?

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

How does economic data influence the value of the Euro?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro?

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

AUD/USD remains depressed 0.7000, awaits FOMC Minutes

AUD/USD struggles to capitalize on its recent recovery move and trades with a negative bias below 0.7000 in Wednesday's Asian session. Amid geopolitical uncertainty, the US Dollar attracts some dip-buyers after a fresh leg up in US bond yields, keeping the pair under pressure despite hawkish RBA expectations. All eyes now remain on the FOMC Minutes.

USD/JPY holds firm near 158.50 ahead of Fed Minutes

USD/JPY hangs close to a one-and-a-half-week high near 158.50 in the Asian session on Wednesday, with bulls now awaiting a move beyond the 200-day SMA hurdle before positioning for further gains ahead of the FOMC Minutes. Meanwhile, a fresh leg up in US bond yields revives US Dollar demand amid geopolitical uncertainties, boosting the pair amid dovish BoJ commentary.

Gold retraces gains and nears two-month lows at $4,104

Gold retraces Tuesday’s gains on Wednesday and resumes its broader bearish trend, with the US Dollar appreciating across the board, as investors brace for the release of the minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting. The XAU/USD pair trades below $4,120 after retreating from the $4,180 area on Tuesday, drifting closer to the two-month low at $4,104.

Dogecoin extended correction and weakening momentum raise downside risks

Dogecoin extends its losses, trading around $0.090 down more than 5% so far this week. Bearish pressure is strengthening, with short positions reaching a one-month high and traders in overheated conditions. Meanwhile, weakening momentum indicators are also hinting at further losses in DOGE. Derivatives data shows cautious signals among traders.

Indian Rupee hits fresh four-month low, RBI hikes Repo Rate to 5.5%

The Indian Rupee weakens significantly against the US Dollar after a muted response, following the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. The USD/INR pair jumps to near 96.72, the highest level seen in four months. In the policy meeting, the RBI decide to hike its Repo Rate by 25 basis points to 5.5%, the first hike since February 2023.

Eurozone inflation just hit 3.8%, its highest in three years. This chart shows why the ECB can’t simply hike its way out

The ECB would normally have a relatively straightforward answer to inflation running almost twice its target: raise interest rates. But these are not normal circumstances. This time, the bond market is already doing part of the tightening for it, leaving the ECB facing an increasingly difficult dilemma.