Euro: Shifts from selloff to consolidation against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang reports EUR/USD briefly spiked to 1.1434 before retreating, leaving intraday momentum subdued and the pair expected to trade between 1.1360 and 1.1410. The earlier downside move is now seen as stabilised, with the Euro likely to oscillate in a wider 1.1335–1.1470 band, while longer-term focus remains on key supports.

Weakness stabilises into broad range

"24-HOUR VIEW: After EUR consolidated as we expected last Thursday, we highlighted on Friday that “the price action still appears to be part of a consolidation phase, but the slightly firmer underlying tone suggests EUR is likely to trade within a higher range of 1.1345/1.1395 today.” Instead of consolidating, EUR popped to a high of 1.1434 before retreating quickly. EUR closed slightly higher at 1.1383 (+0.12%). The brief advance did not lead to any increase in upward momentum, and EUR is likely to trade in a range today, probably between 1.1360 and 1.1410."

"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We turned negative on EUR more than a week ago. In our most recent narrative from last Thursday (25 Jun, spot at 1.1355), we highlighted that the steep decline “appears to be overstretched.” We also highlighted that EUR “must close below 1.1325 before a move to 1.1280 can be expected.” On Friday, EUR broke above our ‘strong resistance’ level at 1.1420, printing a high of 1.1434. The breach of our ‘strong resistance’ indicates that the weakness in EUR has stabilised. From here, we expect EUR to trade in a range, most likely between 1.1335 and 1.1470."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)