Euro rallies above 0.8700 against the British Pound as UK political turmoil worsens

EUR/GBP jumps to five-week highs above 0.8700 on track to a 0.75% weekly rally.
The Pound dives across the board as UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer fights for survival.
Concerns of another fiscal crisis are adding pressure on the Sterling.

Guillermo Alcala FXStreet

The Euro (EUR) rallies for the second consecutive day against an ailing British Pound (GBP) on Friday, crushed by growing political uncertainty in the UK. The cross reached fresh five-week highs above 0.8720 earlier on the day and is heading for a 0.75% weekly appreciation, its best performance in the last eight months.

Traders are selling the Pound across the board, following the resignation of the UK Health Secretary, Wes Streeting, the last of a series of resignations, following the disastrous Labour results at last week’s local elections. Streeting affirmed on Thursday that he "lost confidence" in UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, which has increased his isolation.

Starmer has pledged to remain in charge, but his position grows weaker by the minute. Calls to resign have been mounting, and some Labour lawmakers are moving to replace him, with the Mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham, emerging as the best positioned.

The market is reacting with concern to the possibility of a disorderly leadership contest and, above all, of a new Prime Minister looking to increase government borrowing, as is the case with Burnham, which might trigger another fiscal crisis.

The UK economic calendar is practically void on Friday, while in Europe, Italian final Consumer Prices Index (CPI) figures have shown an unexpected slowdown in inflation in April, which has eased to a 1.6% monthly growth, from 1.7% in March, and a 2.8% increase in the previous 12 months, after a 2.9% reading in the previous month. The impact of these figures on the Euro, however, has been marginal.

Pound Sterling FAQs

What is the Pound Sterling?

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling?

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

How does economic data influence the value of the Pound?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound?

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Author

Guillermo Alcala

FXStreet

Graduated in Communication Sciences at the Universidad del Pais Vasco and Universiteit van Amsterdam, Guillermo has been working as financial news editor and copywriter in diverse Forex-related firms, like FXStreet and Kantox.

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