Euro edges higher against British Pound as oil surge lifts ECB rate expectations
- EUR/GBP strengthens to around 0.8535 in Wednesday’s early European session.
- US carries out more strikes on Iran.
- Traders boosted wagers on faster BoE and ECB rate hikes after rising oil prices.
The EUR/GBP cross gains momentum to near 0.8535 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. Traders ramp up bets on the Bank of England (BoE) and European Central Bank (ECB) rate hikes as oil price surge reignites inflation fears. ECB policymakers Fabio Panetta and Joachim Nagel are set to speak later in the day.
US President Donald Trump’s reimposition of a blockade on Iranian ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz and payment demand for all other cargo have raised oil-driven inflation concerns. On Tuesday, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) said that it launched further attacks on Iran, hitting dozens of military targets near the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian coastal areas.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said on Wednesday that it had targeted what it described as command-and-control, logistics, fuel and military equipment facilities belonging to the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain, per Reuters.
Traders are now fully pricing a 25 basis points (bps) BOE hike by September, followed by another before year-end. They also expect the ECB to raise rates by a quarter-point in September, with another hike by year-end all but certain, according to Bloomberg.
ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized that the central bank remains strictly data-dependent. The official policy account explicitly noted that the June hike was neither a guaranteed sequence nor a guaranteed one-off move. On Wednesday, ECB Governing Council member Martin Kocher said that the central bank prepared to implement monetary policy measures whenever necessary.
Kocher reinforces ECB resolve but stops short of fresh Euro bullish trigger
Kocher’s 7.1/10 score on the FXS Speechtracker is above the historic 6.4/10 baseline, signaling a slightly stronger policy stance than usual. The pledge to be “prepared to implement monetary policy measures whenever necessary” and to take all steps needed to secure the 2% inflation target in the medium term leans modestly hawkish, as it underscores a clear readiness to act.
However, the remark that no secondary effects are observed at present tempers the tone, suggesting no immediate pressure for aggressive tightening. Overall, the speech supports a mildly supportive backdrop for the Euro, but the lack of new urgency or concrete measures limits the potential for a decisive Euro breakout in the near term.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Author
Lallalit Srijandorn
FXStreet
Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.
