Euro: ECB September hike still base case – TD Securities

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

TD Securities strategists highlight that Euro area Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation rose to 2.9% y/y in July, with core inflation at 2.5% and services inflation at 3.3%, indicating only limited evidence of meaningful second-round effects. Markets continue to price a 25 bp European Central Bank (ECB) rate hike in September, which remains the TD’s base case. It notes that only a clear and durable resolution to the Middle East conflict would materially alter this outlook.

Euro inflation keeps September hike priced

"Euro area HICP inflation for July came in at 2.9% y/y (market: 2.9%; prior: 2.8%)."

"So overall, there was a small tick up in both core and services but still limited evidence of meaningful second-round effects."

"Markets continue to fully price a 25bp ECB rate hike in September, which remains our base case."

"A material shift in this outlook would likely require a clear and durable resolution to the Middle East conflict."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD edges higher above 0.7050 as hot CPI lifts RBA rate hike odds

The AUD/USD pair gathers strength to near 0.7055 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The Australian Dollar edges higher against the US Dollar as hotter inflation data bolsters expectations of Reserve Bank of Australia rate hikes. The US September Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation report will be in the spotlight later on Thursday.

USD/JPY treads water near 158.00 ahead of BoJ

USD/JPY navigates an inconclusive range around the 158.00 neighbourhood ahead of the opening bell in Asia on Friday. Indeed, the pair alternates gains with losses following Wednesday’s decent pullback as investors gear up for the imminent interest rate decision by the BoJ. In the meantime, market consensus expect the central bank to keep its hands steady.

Gold remains sidelined just above $4,000

Gold leaves behind the recent three-day positive streak and faces renewed selling pressure near the $4,000 mark per troy ounce on Thursday. The precious metal’s daily decline comes amid marginal gains in the US Dollar and mixed US Treasury yields, while crude oil prices remain on the back foot.

HYPE soars 17% as ICE, Druckenmiller invest in tradeXYZ for US expansion

Hyperliquid (HYPE) jumps 17% on Thursday as Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) announced it will partner with trade[XYZ] to bring Hyperliquid-based perpetual futures markets to the US, expanding efforts to introduce on-chain derivatives trading within a regulated framework. Billionaire investor Stan Druckenmiller will also join as an investor in trade[XYZ].

BoJ preview: Hawkish hold

Having hiked rates by 25bp to 1.25% in September, the central messages from the BoJ were largely similar; upside price risks remained, real interest rates were still negative and further policy rate hikes should be expected.

A hot US economy is supposed to sink Gold. It didn't. Here's why

Gold (XAU/USD) remains under pressure near $4,000, as stronger-than-expected United States (US) economic data reinforce expectations of another Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike in December. Economic growth is accelerating, inflation remains elevated, and borrowing costs could rise further.