EUR/USD trades with a negative bias below 1.0750, eyes on German inflation data

The EUR/USD pair trades with a negative bias near 1.0728 on Friday during the early Asian session. The modest recovery in the US Dollar (USD) amid the rising speculation of a Fed rate cut in September weighs on the major pair. On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) held interest rates steady at a record high as expected and opened the door to a rate cut in June. Investors await the German March inflation data and the preliminary US Michigan Consumer Sentiment, due on Friday.

A measure of US inflation at the wholesale level came in softer-than-expected in March, boosting hopes for rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.2% MoM in March, compared to the 0.3% estimate. Annually, the PPI jumped 2.1% YoY in the same period, the biggest gain since April 2023. Additionally, the Core PPI, excluding food and energy, increased 2.4% YoY, beating market expectations, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday.

The report had little impact on the market. Investors are now pricing in only two rate cuts this year, which will most likely begin in September, according to CME FedWatch Tool. The FOMC minutes released on Wednesday showed that participants noted their uncertainty about the elevated high inflation and recent data had not increased their confidence that inflation was moving sustainably down to 2%".

Across the pond, the ECB held its key interest rates steady at 4.0% for a fifth straight meeting on Thursday. The central bank also hinted about an upcoming rate cut, despite uncertainty over the Fed's next moves. The markets have priced in a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut from the ECB in June, according to LSEG data. The growing speculation that the ECB would cut its rate before the US Fed exerted some selling pressure on the Euro (EUR) and acts as a tailwind for the EUR/USD pair.