EUR/USD to lurch higher towards 1.13 on reassurances about energy supplies to Europe – Rabobank

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Economists at Rabobank have chosen not to alter their EUR/USD forecasts. But the one-month EUR/USD forecast at 1.13 now requires some reassurances on the growth outlook in Europe.

EUR/USD to hover around 1.11 by mid-2022

“Europe has agreed to block selected banks from SWIFT. Fears are high in Europe that this may prevent payments to Russia for energy supplies, which could then be cut off. Such a move would trigger a sharp increase in the growth risks facing Europe which we expect would be matched with a potentially aggressive downside move in the EUR.”

“Assuming there is no disruption to energy supplies from Russia to Europe, EUR/USD is likely to hold above its February 24 low just above the 1.11 area and may edge back towards the 1.13 area if western governments issue sufficient reassurances about energy supplies to Europe.”

“We still expect a move to EUR/USD 1.11 around the middle of the year on a mixture of safe-haven demand for USD and Fed policy tightening.”

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

EUR/USD stays weak near 1.1650 ahead of critical US events

EUR/USD stays in the red near 1.1650 in the European trading hours on Friday. The pair remains undermined by broad US Dollar strength and a cautious market mood. Traders keenly await the US Nonfarm Payrolls data and Supreme Court's ruling on Trump's tariff powers for further direction.

GBP/USD holds lower ground below 1.3450, with eyes on US data

GBP/USD remains subdued for the fourth consecutive day, while trading below 1.3450 in the European session on Friday. Markets remain in a wait-and-see mode before the key US event risks and prefer to hold the US Dollar, which weighs negatively on the pair. The US monthly jobs data and the Supreme Court decision on tariffs are awaited.

Gold flat lines around $4,475; looks to US NFP report for fresh impetus

Gold reverses a modest intraday dip to the $4,453 area, and trades near the top end of its daily range heading into the European session. The upside, however, seems limited as traders might opt to wait for the US Nonfarm Payrolls report later today. The crucial employment details will be looked upon for more cues about the Federal Reserve's rate-cut path.

Nonfarm Payrolls expected to show US labor market remained weak in December

The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Nonfarm Payrolls data for December on Friday at 13:30 GMT. Economists expect Nonfarm Payrolls to rise by 60,000 in December following the 64,000 increase recorded in November.

2026 economic outlook: Clear skies but don’t unfasten your seatbelts yet

Most years fade into the background as soon as a new one starts. Not 2025: a year of epochal shifts, in which the macroeconomy was the dog that did not bark. What to expect in 2026? The shocks of 2025 will not be undone, but neither will they be repeated.

Pepe Price Forecast: PEPE risks 100-day EMA fallout as bullish interest fades

Pepe is under extreme selling pressure, trading in the red for the fifth consecutive day, down 1% at press time on Friday. Pepe’s decline following a 72% hike last week suggests a likely profit-booking phase, while on-chain data indicates declining network activity.