EUR/USD: Reverses lower from 4H 200MA ahead of German Gfk consumer confidence

EUR/USD has faced rejection at the key moving average hurdle.
A below-forecast German consumer confidence will likely hurt the EUR.
The US-China trade tensions linger with Washington currently not ready for a trade deal.

Omkar Godbole FXStreet Contributor

EUR/USD is feeling the pull of gravity ahead of key German data releases.

The shared currency failed to cut through the 4-hour chart 200-candle moving average (MA) resistance of 1.1214 on Monday and is now trading on the defensive at 1.1182.

The GfK's Consumer Confidence index for June – a leading index that measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity – is forecasted to remain unchanged at 10.4. The data is scheduled for release at 06:00 GMT today.

An above-forecast reading could bode well for the common currency, helping it capitalize on the short-term bullish reversal confirmed on Friday.

A big miss on expectations, however, would accentuate concerns of deeper slowdown in the Eurozone’s biggest economy and would send the EUR lower. The short-term bullish outlook would be invalidated if the spot closes today below Friday’s low of 1.1172.

A bearish close could happen if the European and US equities drop on trade tensions. The US President Trump on Monday said that Washington is not ready for a trade deal with China.

Apart from the German GfK’s Consumer Confidence number, the pair may also take cues from the German import price index, Eurozone money supply figures and the Eurozone’s consumer, economic and industrial confidence indices.

Pivot levels

1. R3 1.1243
2. R2 1.123
3. R1 1.1212
PP 1.1199
1. S1 1.1181
2. S2 1.1168
3. S3 1.115

Author

Omkar Godbole

FXStreet Contributor

Omkar Godbole, editor and analyst, joined FXStreet after four years as a research analyst at several Indian brokerage companies.

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD trims intraday gains, stays flat around 1.1630

EUR/USD struggles to find direction and trades in a narrow channel on Monday. Investors refrain from taking large positions ahead of this week's critical Fed policy meeting, allowing the pair to stay in a consolidation phase following two consecutive weeks of bullish action. US Dollar gains ground as risk aversion kicks in.

GBP/USD edges lower toward 1.3300 as markets turn cautious

GBP/USD corrects lower toward 1.3300 on Monday after posting gains in the previous week. The markets adopt a cautious stance ahead of the highly-anticipated Fed meeting, making it difficult for the pair to gather bullish momentum.

Gold remains seases below $4,200 as markets gear up for Fed

Gold turned south after Wall Street's opening, trading south of $4,200. The US Dollar finds additional legs on a souring mood on Monday as market participants prepare for the upcoming Fed meeting, which will provide key insights into the short-term policy outlook.

Bitcoin and Ethereum aim for breakouts as Ripple holds at $2

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple record a minor recovery on Monday, starting the week on a positive note. The retail demand for major cryptocurrencies remains strong despite outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum Exchange Traded Funds.

The Silver disconnection is real

Silver just hit a new all-time high. Neither did gold, nor mining stocks. They all reversed on an intraday basis, but silver’s move to new highs makes it still bullish overall, while the almost complete reversals in gold and miners make the latter technically bearish.