- EUR/USD faces challenges as the US Dollar gains strength, supported by signs of easing tensions between the US and China.
- China announced exemptions for certain US imports from its 125% tariffs, offering a glimmer of hope for improved trade relations.
- ECB’s dovish expectations are building amid rising concerns that Eurozone inflation could fall short of the central bank’s 2% target.
EUR/USD continues to weaken for a second consecutive session, trading around 1.1360 during Asian hours on Monday. The pair is under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens amid signs of easing tensions between the US and China.
On Friday, China exempted certain US imports from its 125% tariffs, according to business sources. The move has fueled hopes that the prolonged trade war between the world's two largest economies might be drawing to a close.
Adding to the sentiment, US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said on Sunday, as reported by Reuters, that the Trump administration is holding daily discussions with China regarding tariffs. Rollins emphasized that talks were ongoing and that trade agreements with other countries were also "very close."
Despite these comments, Reuters cited a Chinese embassy spokesperson on Friday, who firmly denied any current negotiations with the US, stating, "China and the US are not having any consultation or negotiation on tariffs." The spokesperson urged Washington to "stop creating confusion." Additionally, a Beijing official reiterated on Thursday that no "economic and trade negotiations" were underway and stressed that the US must "completely cancel all unilateral tariff measures" to pave the way for talks.
Meanwhile, dovish expectations surrounding the European Central Bank (ECB) are mounting, fueled by growing concerns that Eurozone inflation may fall short of the ECB's 2% target. Last Thursday, ECB policymaker and Finnish central bank governor Olli Rehn warned of downside risks to inflation, noting, "It is quite possible that the projections for medium-term inflation under the current circumstances may well be below the 2% target."
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
BRANDED CONTENT
If you're looking for the best brokers to trade the EUR/USD pair, explore our selected options. Knowing each broker’s strengths will help you find the ideal fit for your trading strategy.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD holds gains below 1.1350 amid US Dollar weakness
EUR/USD is consolidating gains below 1.1350 in Wednesday's European trading on the back of a sustained weakness n the US Dollar. Renewed trade jitters, along with fresh concerns about the US fiscal health, add further pressure on the Greenback. The focus now is on the ECB and Fed-speak.
GBP/USD defends gains below 1.3450 after strong UK inflation data
GBP/USD is off the highs but defends gains below 1.3450 in the European session on Wednesday. The data from the UK showed that the annual CPI inflation jumped to 3.5% in April from 2.6% in March, temporarily lifting the Pound Sterling. But a softer risk tone caps the pair's upside.
Gold edges higher reclaiming $3,300 on rising geopolitical tensions and US fiscal woes
Gold breaks higher on Wednesday towards $3,308 at the time of writing, fueled by concerns that tensions in the Middle East might spiral out of control again and US fiscal woes. In late trading on Tuesday, CNN reported that Israel is considering targeting nuclear sites in Iran.
Dogecoin and Shiba Inu Price Forecast: DOGE and SHIB show early signs of a bullish breakout
Dogecoin and Shiba Inu show early signs of a potential rally as both meme coins stabilize at key support levels. On-chain metrics for dog-themed meme coins show positive funding rates and dormant activity, reinforcing bullish sentiment. The technical outlook also supports the case for double-digit gains.
FOMO vs fundamentals: Retail buys the dip, institutional investors stay cautious
Retail optimism is rising, but institutions are still treading carefully amid lingering macro and earnings risks. Policy and fiscal uncertainty remain elevated, with trade tensions, U.S. debt concerns, and a cautious Fed dominating the backdrop.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.