EUR/USD Price Forecast: Struggling below 1.1400 with YTD lows at a short distance
- EUR/USD remains capped below 1.1400, with the YTD low of 1.1324 at a short distance.
- The Fed is expected to leave rates on hold and leave the door open for a hike in September.
- The technical picture shows the pair consolidating losses within a broader bearish trend.
The Euro (EUR) holds marginal gains against the US Dollar on Wednesday after finding some support in the mid-range of the 1.1300s earlier this week but remains unable to find acceptance above 1.1400. This leaves the EUR/USD pair vulnerable to further decline below the year-to-date low, at 1.1324, if a hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) provides an additional boost to the US Dollar.
The Fed is expected to leave its benchmark interest rate on hold, although markets are pricing a 35% chance of a quarter-point hike later in the day. A surprise tightening move is highly likely to send the US Dollar rallying, but a hawkish pause, the most likely scenario, might also provide support for the USD as it will cement hopes of a September hike.
In Europe, European Central Bank (ECB) council member and Cyprus Central Bank Governor Christodoulos Patsalides reiterated that higher Oil prices are boosting inflation risks, but he refused to give any hint about September’s monetary policy decision. The Euro showed no reaction to the comments.
Technical Analysis: Consolidating losses amid a bearish trend
EUR/USD trades around 1.1390, wavering in the lower range of July's trading channel and unable to put any significant distance from the 13-month low of 1.1324. Momentum indicators hint at a neutral-to-slightly-capped near-term bias with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) below the midline, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) edging marginally above zero, highlighting subdued bullish conviction.
On the topside, above 1.1400, bulls are likely to be challenged at 1.1440 (July 23 highs) ahead of the top of the last six weeks' trading range, at the 1.1480 area. On the downside, key support is at the mentioned 1.1324 low; further down, the next target is in the area between the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the June 17-24 sell-off, at 1.1245, and the late May 2025 low, at 1.1210.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.09% | 0.33% | 0.00% | 0.08% | 0.85% | 0.44% | 0.46% | |
| EUR | -0.09% | 0.22% | -0.09% | -0.01% | 0.77% | 0.35% | 0.37% | |
| GBP | -0.33% | -0.22% | -0.41% | -0.23% | 0.55% | 0.13% | 0.15% | |
| JPY | 0.00% | 0.09% | 0.41% | 0.06% | 0.84% | 0.43% | 0.36% | |
| CAD | -0.08% | 0.00% | 0.23% | -0.06% | 0.74% | 0.37% | 0.38% | |
| AUD | -0.85% | -0.77% | -0.55% | -0.84% | -0.74% | -0.41% | -0.40% | |
| NZD | -0.44% | -0.35% | -0.13% | -0.43% | -0.37% | 0.41% | 0.02% | |
| CHF | -0.46% | -0.37% | -0.15% | -0.36% | -0.38% | 0.40% | -0.02% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Author
Guillermo Alcala
FXStreet
Graduated in Communication Sciences at the Universidad del Pais Vasco and Universiteit van Amsterdam, Guillermo has been working as financial news editor and copywriter in diverse Forex-related firms, like FXStreet and Kantox.
