EUR/USD Price Forecast: Sees fresh leg of downfall below 1.1570

EUR/USD edges up to near 1.1600 while its outlook remains uncertain.
The ECB is expected to talk a lot about raising interest rates in the policy meeting next week.
Investors await the US NFP data for May.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

The EUR/USD pair trades marginally higher to near 1.1600 during the early European trading session on Thursday. The major currency pair edges up, but is close to its Wednesday’s low, suggesting that the outlook is still uncertain.

The Euro is broadly under pressure as higher energy prices due to the Middle East crisis have diminished the appeal of currencies from economies that rely heavily on oil imports to meet its energy needs.

On the monetary policy, investors are mixed regarding whether the European Central Bank (ECB) will raise interest rates in the policy meeting; however, they are very likely to discuss heavily on tightening monetary conditions due to higher inflationary pressures.

In May, the headline and the core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) arrived higher at 3.2% and 2.5% Year-on-Year (YoY), respectively.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) ticks down to near 99.45, but is still close to its over eight-week high of 99.55. The DXY is broadly firm amid the United States (US) and Iran are struggling to reach a deal. Going forward, investors will focus on the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for May, which will be released on Friday.

EUR/USD technical analysis

EUR/USD ticks higher at around 1.1600 at press time. However, the near-term tone of the pair remains bearish as it holds below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.1646.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 43 leans to the downside, suggesting sellers retain control despite the recent stabilization in price.

On the topside, initial resistance sits at the 20-day EMA near 1.1646, and a daily close above this barrier would be needed to ease the immediate downward pressure. Looking down, the pair could slide to 1.1500 if it drops below the May 21 low at 1.1576.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Economic Indicator

Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)

The Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) measures changes in the prices of a representative basket of goods and services in the European Monetary Union. The HICP, – released by Eurostat on a monthly basis, is harmonized because the same methodology is used across all member states and their contribution is weighted. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Core HICP excludes volatile components like food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco. The Core HICP is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

GBP/USD clings to small gains near 1.3450 after UK jobs data

GBP/USD trades in positive territory at around 1.3450 in the European session on Tuesday. The UK ILO Unemployment Rate remained at 4.9% in the three months to May, compared with expectations of 5%, but failed to provide any impetus to the British Pound's renewed uptick. Traders stay cautious amid US-Iran uncertainty and the UK political transition.

EUR/USD keeps range above 1.1400 after German ZEW

EUR/USD is keeping its range above 1.1400 in Tuesday's European session, as the US Dollar (USD) retreats following Monday's rebound. Nevertheless, the uncertainty around the US-Iran conflict limits the pair's upside. Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) pays little heed to the strong German sentiment data, as traders await Thursday's European Central Bank policy announcements, which could drive the Euro's near-term valuation.

Gold extends recovery toward $4,100

Gold gains traction following Monday's choppy action and advances toward $4,100 on Tuesday. However, the uncertainty surrounding the conflict in the Middle East and growing expectations for a hawkish Federal Reserve policy outlook could make it difficult for the precious metal to gather bullish momentum in the near term.

Shiba Inu price extends gains as on-chain and derivatives metrics confirm bullish bias

Shiba Inu extends gains, trading above $0.0000042 after breaking above the descending trendline the previous day. Strengthening on-chain data and improving derivatives metrics support further gains for the meme coin. CryptoQuant’s exchange netflow chart below shows five consecutive days of net outflows since July 17.

Brent nears a critical crossroads as the global economy faces one too

Markets spent last Friday digesting a Reuters report that Iran has told the Houthis to stand ready to close Bab el-Mandeb if the US strikes Iranian power infrastructure — missiles and drones are reportedly already positioned near the strait, awaiting the order from IRGC officers in Yemen.

US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?

The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.