EUR/USD Price Forecast: Holds above 1.1700 as bullish potential seems intact

EUR/USD struggles to capitalize on a modest bullish gap at the start of a new week.
The technical setup favors bulls and backs the case for some upside in the near-term.
A break below the 1.1650-1.1645 confluence is needed to negate the positive bias.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The EUR/USD pair attracts some intraday sellers following a modest Asian session uptick to mid-1.1700s and fills a major part of a bullish gap at the start of a new week. Spot prices, however, manage to hold above the 1.1700 round figure, warranting some caution before positioning for an extension of Friday's retracement slide from a one-and-a-half week top.

From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair holds a modest bullish bias as it trades above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, suggesting dips are being absorbed for now. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 53 points to mildly positive but not overstretched momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains slightly in positive territory. This hints that upside pressure is present but not yet impulsive.

However, Friday's pullback makes it prudent to wait for a sustained strength and acceptance above the 1.1750 area, or the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the March-April upswing, before positioning for further gains. A subsequent hurdle is aligned at the recent cycle high area at 1.1847.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the 38.2% retracement around 1.1692, followed by a key confluence zone formed by the 200-period SMA at 1.1648 and the 50.0% retracement at 1.1644. A deeper pullback could then target the 61.8% level at 1.1596, ahead of 1.1528 and 1.1441.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

EUR/USD 4-hour chart

Euro FAQs

What is the Euro?

The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro?

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro?

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

How does economic data influence the value of the Euro?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro?

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

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