EUR/USD Price Forecast: Eyes further upside towards 1.1620

EUR/USD nudges lower to near 1.1550 as the US Dollar bounces back slightly.
Traders have trimmed Fed’s interest rate hike expectations significantly.
Investors await the US CPI data for July, which will be released on Wednesday.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

The Euro (EUR) trades subduedly at around 1.1550 against the US Dollar (USD) during the early European trading session on Monday. The EUR/USD pair edges down as the US Dollar rebounds after a significant fall on Friday.

At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.12% higher to near 99.72.

The US Dollar fell sharply on Friday after the release of the soft United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July, which forced traders to reassess Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate expectations.

The NFP report showed that employers fired 23K workers, while they were anticipated to create 80K fresh jobs.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed raising policy rates in the September meeting are 46%, a sharp decline from 67% seen a week ago.

Meanwhile, investors await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July, which will be released on Wednesday.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EUR/USD trades marginally lower at around 1.1550, but is maintaining a bullish near-term bias as spot remains above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.1484, suggesting the recent advance is supported by underlying demand.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) strives to stabilize above the 60.00 zone, hinting at fresh bullish momentum.

On the downside, initial support emerges near the August 3 low at 1.1500, followed by the 20-day EMA at 1.1484. The pair would be exposed to the July 28 low at 1.1353 if it fails to hold the 20-day EMA. On the upside, the pair could extend the advance towards the June 15 high at 1.1622 if it manages a decisive break above Friday's high at 1.1581.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Economic Indicator

Nonfarm Payrolls

The Nonfarm Payrolls release presents the number of new jobs created in the US during the previous month in all non-agricultural businesses; it is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile. The number is also subject to strong reviews, which can also trigger volatility in the Forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish, although previous months' reviews and the Unemployment Rate are as relevant as the headline figure. The market's reaction, therefore, depends on how the market assesses all the data contained in the BLS report as a whole.

Why it matters to traders?

America’s monthly jobs report is considered the most important economic indicator for forex traders. Released on the first Friday following the reported month, the change in the number of positions is closely correlated with the overall performance of the economy and is monitored by policymakers. Full employment is one of the Federal Reserve’s mandates and it considers developments in the labor market when setting its policies, thus impacting currencies. Despite several leading indicators shaping estimates, Nonfarm Payrolls tend to surprise markets and trigger substantial volatility. Actual figures beating the consensus tend to be USD bullish.

Author

Sagar Dua

FXStreet

Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.

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