EUR/USD Price Forecast: Bulls await break above 200-SMA/38.2% Fibo. confluence near 1.1670
- EUR/USD struggles to gain any meaningful traction during the Asian session amid mixed cues.
- The Fed’s dovish outlook keeps the USD bulls on the defensive and lends support to the pair.
- The fragile US-Iran ceasefire limits the USD downside and acts as a headwind for spot prices.
The EUR/USD pair finds some support near the 1.1650 region during the Asian session on Thursday, and for now, seems to have stalled the previous day's late pullback from over a one-month high.
The US Federal Reserve's (Fed) dovish outlook, signaling that it still sees one interest rate cut this year if inflation declines in line with expectations, caps the attempted US Dollar (USD) recovery move and acts as a tailwind for spot prices. Meanwhile, experts seem skeptical about the sustainability of the US-Iran ceasefire. This, in turn, benefits the Greenback's safe-haven status and caps the upside for the EUR/USD pair.
The overnight failure to build on the momentum beyond the 1.1670 confluence hurdle – comprising the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the January-March downfall – warrants caution for bulls. That said, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 56, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) holds in positive territory and edges higher, hinting that downside pressure is easing rather than a clear bullish reversal.
This makes it prudent to wait for a sustained strength above the said confluence barrier and the 1.1700 mark before positioning for further gains toward the 50% retracement at 1.1747 and the 61.8% Fibo. level at 1.1827, ahead of 1.1941 and 1.2086. On the downside, first support emerges at the 23.6% Fibo. retracement at 1.1568, with a deeper pullback exposing the cycle low region around 1.1409.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
EUR/USD daily chart
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Author
Haresh Menghani
FXStreet
Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.
