EUR/USD Price Analysis: Consolidates around 1.0765-70 area/100-day SMA, US CPI awaited

EUR/USD remains confined in a narrow trading band for the second straight day.
The technical setup warrants some caution before placing fresh directional bets.
Traders now look to the US CPI for fresh impetus amid dovish Fed/ECB pricing.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The EUR/USD pair extends its sideways consolidative price move for the second successive day on Tuesday and remains well within the striking distance of the monthly low, around the 1.0725-1.0720 region touched last week. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.0765-1.0770 area, nearly unchanged for the day, as traders keenly await the release of the US consumer inflation figures for a fresh impetus.

In the run-up to the key data risk, reduced bets for the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in March 2024 act as a tailwind for the US Dollar (USD). The shared currency, on the other hand, is undermined by speculations that the European Central Bank (ECB) may start cutting interest rates early next year amid a bigger-than-expected fall in the Eurozone inflation last month. This, in turn, is holding back traders from placing aggressive directional bets around the EUR/USD pair and leading to a subdued range-bound price action.

From a technical perspective, spot prices on Friday showed resilience below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the October-November rally and so far, managed to defend the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) on a daily closing basis. This makes it prudent to wait for a sustained break and acceptance below the 1.0725 region before positioning for an extension of the recent pullback from a multi-month peak touched in November. The EUR/USD pair might then weaken below the 1.0700 mark and test the 61.8% Fibo. level, around the 1.0670-1.0665 zone.

On the flip side, the 1.0800 round figure, coinciding with the 38.2% Fibo. breakpoint, now seems to act as an immediate strong barrier ahead of the 200-day SMA, around the 1.0825 region. Some follow-through buying has the potential to lift the EUR/USD pair back closer to the 1.0900 mark. The momentum could get extended further towards the next relevant hurdle near the 1.0940 horizontal zone, above which bulls could make a fresh attempt to conquer the 1.1000 psychological mark.

EUR/USD daily chart

Technical levels to watch

EUR/USD

Overview
Today last price	1.0768
Today Daily Change	0.0003
Today Daily Change %	0.03
Today daily open	1.0765

Trends
Daily SMA20	1.0874
Daily SMA50	1.071
Daily SMA100	1.0761
Daily SMA200	1.0823

Levels
Previous Daily High	1.0779
Previous Daily Low	1.0742
Previous Weekly High	1.0895
Previous Weekly Low	1.0724
Previous Monthly High	1.1017
Previous Monthly Low	1.0517
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1.0765
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1.0756
Daily Pivot Point S1	1.0745
Daily Pivot Point S2	1.0725
Daily Pivot Point S3	1.0707
Daily Pivot Point R1	1.0782
Daily Pivot Point R2	1.0799
Daily Pivot Point R3	1.0819

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

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