EUR/USD falls to near 1.1700 as US to raise tariffs on EU vehicles

EUR/USD falls as Trump signals US tariffs on EU cars and trucks rising to 25% from 15%.
US Dollar trims daily losses as risk aversion rises on escalating Middle East tensions.
Trump plans escorting ships via Strait of Hormuz; Ebrahim Azizi warns US role violates ceasefire.

Akhtar Faruqui FXStreet

EUR/USD depreciates after opening at the bullish gap, remaining in the positive territory and trading around 1.1720 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair declined as the Euro (EUR) faces challenges, which could be attributed to the recent comments from President Donald Trump, indicating the US will raise tariffs on European Union (EU) cars and trucks to 25% from 15% this week, citing alleged breaches of a trade deal.

Trump said in a social media post, warning EU-made vehicles would face higher duties unless production shifts to US plants, aiming to push carmakers to localize output. The European Commission rejected the claim, saying it is complying with last summer’s agreement and vowing to defend EU interests if Washington violates the deal.

The EUR/USD pair also loses ground as the US Dollar (USD) pares its daily losses amid increased risk aversion driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East. Bloomberg reported on Sunday that Donald Trump said the United States will begin guiding some neutral ships trapped in the Persian Gulf out through the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday.

Ebrahim Azizi, a former commander in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and current head of the parliamentary National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, said that any US interference in the new maritime regime of the Strait of Hormuz would be considered a violation of the ceasefire. He added that the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf are not a place for rhetoric.

Euro FAQs

What is the Euro?

The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro?

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro?

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

How does economic data influence the value of the Euro?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro?

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Author

Akhtar Faruqui

FXStreet

Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India. With a keen eye for market trends and a passion for dissecting complex financial dynamics, he is dedicated to delivering accurate and insightful Forex news and analysis.

GBP/USD holds range near 1.3500 after UK Q2 GDP

GBP/USD keeps its range near the 1.3500 psychological mark in the European session on Thursday. The mixed UK GDP and industrial data failed to inspire the British Pound. Meanwhile, the US Dollar stabilizes after the US CPI data-led sell-off, checking any upside attempts in the pair.

EUR/USD flatlines above 1.1500 as US Dollar stablizes ahead of PPI

EUR/USD is trading modestly flat above 1.1500 in European trading hours on Thursday. The pair stalls its rebound as the US Dollar consolidates losses incurred after the release of July's Consumer Price Index report. Inflation in the US moderated across a broad range of goods and services, cooling expectations for an aggressive Federal Reserve rate hike in September and weighing on the Greenback. The US PPI data is next in focus.

Gold stays weak below $4,400 as USD stalls post-CPI decline

Gold holds its intraday retracement slide from the highest level since June 5 at the $4,450 area touched earlier this Thursday, and trades below the $4,400 mark in the European session. The initial market reaction to signs of moderating US inflation fades quickly as investors remain worried that higher energy prices will rekindle inflationary pressures, pausing the US Dollar's downside.

XRP holds at make-or-break level, ADA and SOL risk 50-day EMA breakout

Top altcoins, including Ripple, Cardano, and Solana, are facing downside pressure, holding at crucial support levels. The technical outlook for XRP, ADA, and SOL indicates a mild bearish bias as downside pressure mounts.

Boring CPI, boring August?

Yesterday’s unexciting US CPI print left FX with little sense of direction into the end-August Jackson Hole Symposium. What can stop this relentless decline in volatility? Gulf news, Fedspeak and big surprises in tier-two data are all possible candidates. But there’s a good chance they won’t, and EUR/USD may stay in tight ranges for the next few weeks.

Why is Crude Oil priced for a reopening the ships haven't made?

Fourteen vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. Before the war, the count ran near 120 a day. In the sessions since the waterway was publicly declared open, Brent has drifted back to $87 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $81, both a little lower again on Wednesday, with daily momentum on each unwound from the top of its range in late July to the low twenties now.