EUR/USD: Consolidation is on the roll – OCBC

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

The Euro (EUR) fell below 1.05 overnight but the dip was brief. Last seen at 1.0568 levels, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

EUR to continue suffering from the US election outcome

“Daily momentum is bearish though RSI shows tentative signs of turning from near oversold conditions. Near term consolidation not ruled out but bias to sell rallies. Resistance at 1.06, 1.0740 (76.4% fibo fibo retracement of 2024 low to high), 1.0780 (21 DMA). Support at 1.05, 1.0450/1.05 levels.”

“Overall, EUR should continue to bear the brunt of the US election outcome. Trump presidency will result in shifts in US foreign, trade policies. The potential 20% tariff (if implemented) can hurt Europe where growth is already slowing, and that US is EU’s top export destination.”

“On German politics, the minority government faces economic and diplomatic challenges. PM Scholz is seeking confidence vote earlier on 16 Dec instead of 15 Jan – but is expected to lose. Snap elections likely planned for 23 Feb. Elsewhere wide EU-UST yield differentials continued to widen, validating EUR’s “fair value” relative to yield differentials.”

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

GBP/USD drops to multi-month troughs near 1.3140

GBP/USD adds to Tuesday’s pullback and recedes to the lowest level since November 2025 near 1.3140. A firmer Greenback and continued political turmoil in the UK are keeping Cable under persistent pressure, with little sign of a meaningful recovery.

EUR/USD bounces off YTD lows around 1.1320

EUR/USD extends its decline on Wednesday, falling to fresh yearly lows near 1.1320. The pair remains on the defensive as the US Dollar continues to draw support from hawkish Fed expectations and uncertainty over the outcome of US-Iran peace negotiations.

Gold trims losses, back above $4,000

Gold retreats further and breaches below the key $4,000 mark per troy ounce for the first time since November 2025 on Wednesday. Higher-for-longer Fed expectations and a broadly firmer US Dollar continue to weigh on the precious metal, while uncertainty surrounding a potential US-Iran peace agreement has done little to revive demand for the safe haven space.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP trade under pressure as September Fed rate-hike odds increase

Bitcoin is trading between $62,000 and $63,000 at the time of writing on Wednesday, weighed down by headwinds stemming from macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

5.90% to 5.45%: Why the Pound ignored the bond market’s relief rally

Keir Starmer resigned on Monday, and the Pound barely moved. That near-silence is the tell. Sterling's real driver these past four months has not been the prime minister, nor the left-leaning frontrunner lining up to replace him, but the long end of the gilt curve, which answers to a force no British politician controls.

Regime change: Inside Kevin Warsh's first move to make the Fed unreadable on purpose

The rate did not move. That was the least interesting thing about Kevin Warsh's first meeting in charge of the Fed. The FOMC held its benchmark at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth straight meeting, exactly as priced, and then the new chair used his first press conference to dismantle the machinery the market has leaned on for a decade.