EUR/JPY steady amid political uncertainty, ECB decision in focus

EUR/JPY trades around 183.50 on Monday at the time of writing, virtually unchanged on the day, against a backdrop of persistent weakness in the Japanese Yen (JPY) and a cautious tone on the Euro (EUR) ahead of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy announcements.

The Japanese Yen remains under pressure following the release of weaker-than-expected inflation indicators in Tokyo. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed sharply, pointing to easing underlying inflationary pressures and reducing the urgency for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to raise interest rates again in the near term. These figures reinforce the view that the Japanese central bank will adopt a cautious stance after its recent policy normalization, with markets now pushing the probability of another rate hike toward the spring.

Political factors are also adding to the fragility of the Japanese Yen. Expansionary economic proposals from Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, combined with uncertainty surrounding the snap election scheduled for Sunday, have revived concerns over Japan’s fiscal sustainability. Investors fear that stronger parliamentary backing could pave the way for further tax cuts and additional stimulus measures, weighing on the country’s fiscal credibility.

In this environment, downside pressure on the JPY is partly limited by fears of official intervention. Rumors of unusual exchange rate checks, along with repeated warnings from the Ministry of Finance, continue to instill caution among Japanese Yen sellers, helping to restrain the pace of depreciation for now. In addition, global geopolitical and trade risks continue to underpin latent demand for safe-haven assets, which could eventually provide some support to the Japanese currency.

On the European side, investors’ attention turns to the European Central Bank’s monetary policy decision due on Thursday, with markets broadly expecting interest rates to remain unchanged. At its previous meeting, the central bank left borrowing costs steady for a fourth consecutive time, keeping the Deposit Facility rate at 2%, the Main Refinancing Operations rate at 2.15% and the Marginal Lending Facility rate at 2.4%. The Governing Council reiterated its commitment to ensuring that inflation stabilizes at its 2% target over the medium term, while stressing that interest rate decisions would continue to be taken on a meeting-by-meeting basis.

The latest economic data from the Eurozone offer a slightly more encouraging signal. The Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the Eurozone edged up to 49.5 in January from 49.4 previously, coming in above expectations but remaining in contraction territory. Germany’s PMI was revised higher to 49.1 from a preliminary estimate of 48.7. These figures provide modest support to the Euro, although they remain insufficient to signal a clear recovery in industrial activity.