ECB's Kazaks: July rate hike is unlikely, naming a specific month would be much premature

Anil Panchal FXStreet

“The European Central Bank (ECB) could end its stimulus programme earlier than planned but it is unlikely to raise its main interest rate in July as investors are expecting,” ECB policymaker Martins Kazaks told Reuters during early Monday morning in Europe.

Latvian Central Bank Governor Kazaks pushed back against market bets on a July hike because this would imply a complete winding down, or "tapering" of the ECB's bond purchases before that date, per Reuters.

Additional quotes

July would imply an extremely and unlikely quick pace of tapering.

But overall, at the current juncture, naming a specific month would be much premature.

If we see that inflation remains high and the labor market remains strong or strengthens further, if we see that the economy keeps going, the direction is clear: we may act sooner than we assumed in the past.

With the economy recovering, inflation at this level and increased risk of persistency of inflation, new net asset purchases become less necessary.

Money markets have priced in a 15 basis point hike in the ECB's deposit rate in July, plus nearly a further 40 basis points by December.

EUR/USD snaps six-day uptrend

In addition to the news that probes ECB hawks, firmer US dollar backed by Friday’s US jobs report also weighs on EUR/USD prices of late.

Read: EUR/USD: Bulls firming, eyes on M-formtion neckline before 1.1410 break

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Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

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