ECB: Hawkish tilt with limited 2026 hikes – TD Securities

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

TD Securities strategist Pooja Kumra notes that ECB officials have turned more hawkish as energy‑driven inflation risks re‑emerge, but the bank’s base case is still for only one rate hike toward late 2026. Markets have swung from modest cuts to pricing cumulative 2026 hikes, while ECB research suggests long lags from policy to inflation, especially for services.

Market shifts from cuts to modest 2026 hikes

"Research from the ECB suggests that a 50bp hike can reduce inflation by 0.2-0.3% within 12-18 months while service inflation requires more than 24 months for transmission."

"This big lag also suggests why the ECB members have started to sound hawkish without waiting for the story to unfold."

"Markets have shifted sharply from pricing 8-9bp of ECB cuts for this year (as of 27 February) to pricing a cumulative 40bp of hikes in 2026."

"Our base case remains for the ECB to deliver one rate hike towards the end of 2026."

"Should the response shift towards aggressive fiscal support, central banks (particularly those already operating near neutral such as the ECB) may be less constrained by growth risks when considering further hikes."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

GBP/USD retreats from one-week top as USD firms; 1.3300 holds the key

The GBP/USD pair attracts some sellers during the Asians session, and reverses a part of the previous day's strong move up to a one-week top. Spot prices for now seem to have snapped a three-day winning streak and currently trade around the 1.3235-1.3230 region, down nearly 0.20% for the day.

EUR/USD looks to extend intraday descent below 1.1400

The EUR/USD pair attracts some sellers during the Asian session on Tuesday, snapping a three-day winning streak and stalling its recent recovery from the lowest level since May 2025 set last week. Spot prices slip below the 1.1400 mark amid a firmer US Dollar and seem vulnerable to weaken further.

Gold recovers slightly from YTD low; not out of the woods yet

Gold recovers slightly from its lowest level since November 2025, touched during the Asian session, albeit it sticks to a negative bias for the second straight day. Against the backdrop of renewed Mideast tensions, mixed signals on US-Iran talks assist the US Dollar to attract some dip-buyers and stall its recent pullback from the highest level since May 2025.

Ripple defends critical support, Stellar extends recovery

Ripple (XRP) trades around the key $1.00 psychological level, consolidating as the token awaits its next directional catalyst. Stellar (XLM) extends its recovery above $0.178 after posting modest gains at the start of this week.

Just like Fed, is BoJ’s independence under threat?

When talking about central bank independence, most of the focus has been on Donald Trump’s pressure on the Federal Reserve. But a similar story, a quieter one for now, seems to be happening on the other side of the Pacific: Japan’s government may be testing the Bank of Japan’s independence.

Kevin Warsh isn't expected to say much in Sintra: That's exactly why markets will listen

Financial markets could find an important catalyst in the enchanting, fairytale-like landscape of Sintra this week. The ECB Forum will, as it does every year, gather the crème de la crème of central banks. The new boss at the Fed, who has clearly said that the Fed should stop explaining everything, will need to talk – and traders should listen.