British Pound: Data-heavy week risks BoE repricing – ING

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Chris Turner at ING notes that a busier United Kingdom (UK) data calendar, including jobs, wages and July Consumer Price Index (CPI), could challenge the 55bp of Bank of England (BoE) tightening still priced in. ING’s UK economist James Smith expects the data to be too soft to justify that path, which could allow EUR/GBP to move back toward 0.8575/0.8585, while ING maintains slightly negative views on Sterling.

Soft data could weigh on Sterling

"After a quiet few weeks, the UK data calendar picks up. Jobs and wage data are released tomorrow, and then the July CPI figures on Wednesday."

"Our UK economist, James Smith, thinks that the data will not be strong enough to support the 55bp of Bank of England tightening still priced into UK money market curves."

"If so, EUR/GBP should have an opportunity to work its way back to the 0.8575/85 area."

"Additionally, recall that the suspicion of faulty seasonal adjustments means that UK activity data typically comes in softer in the second half of the year than the first."

"We are still hanging on to slightly negative sterling views, even though M&A inflows may be providing temporary support."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

GBP/USD hits fresh three-month highs above 1.3550

GBP/USD stretches north and refreshes three-month highs above 1.3500 in the European session on Monday. The prevalent US Dollar selling bias favors bullish traders and suggests that the path of least resistance for the pair remains to the upside.

EUR/USD extends gains above 1.1600 on USD weakness

EUR/USD extends its advance above 1.1600 in European trading hours on Monday. The US Dollar resumes its downside amid weaker-than-expected US economic data, shifting Fed expectations and fading geopolitical risk premium.

Gold sticks to gains near $4,400 as USD slumps to two-month low

Gold maintains its bullish tone through the first half of the European session and currently trades around $4,400, up for the second straight day. The commodity, however, remains below the highest level since June 5, touched last Thursday, amid a mixed fundamental backdrop.

Pepe defends a key support amid mixed retail demand

Pepe is up nearly 2% after a 10% decline last week, showing signs of a mild recovery, while broader crypto market risk appetite remains weak. PEPE derivatives data point to a mixed outlook, as Open Interest declines while funding rates turn positive. Technically, PEPE must hold above its $0.00000255 support floor to avoid a downside of over 10%.

Canada CPI expected to show rising inflation in July

Canada’s July Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures will be the focus of attention when published on Monday. Indeed, Statistics Canada data will provide markets with an update on price pressures following the Bank of Canada’s July 15 gathering, when officials kept the interest rate steady at 2.25%, broadly in line with the consensus among analysts.

Why is Crude Oil priced for a reopening the ships haven't made?

Fourteen vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. Before the war, the count ran near 120 a day. In the sessions since the waterway was publicly declared open, Brent has drifted back to $87 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $81, both a little lower again on Wednesday, with daily momentum on each unwound from the top of its range in late July to the low twenties now.