DXY: Markets are very sensitive to comments surrounding FX – OCBC

There was quite a bit of volatility in FX markets overnight, with USD declining at first, in response to the Bloomberg headline that US discussed FX with South Korea. DXY was last at 100.77 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Sideway trades are likely for now

"This was also separately confirmed by South Korea’s finance ministry spokesperson. To put in perspective, this was not exactly a fresh headline as it was originally reported last week by Korea Times but was not picked up by the mainstream media outlets. At the ADB event in Milan last week, BoK Governor Rhee said that Asian currencies, including the Korean won, have been gaining ground partly due to the U.S. administration's pressure on Asian countries to appreciate their currencies."

"Then USD losses were partially retraced after Bloomberg carried a separate report saying that US officials are not seeking to include currency pledges in trade deals (according to a person familiar with the matter, without naming the person). The sharp 2-way moves highlighted how markets are very sensitive to comments surrounding FX especially against a backdrop of chatters of de-dollarisation and questions if FX policy or pledges were part of US bilateral trade talks. Uncertainty on this front may still prove volatile for USD."

"Bullish momentum on daily chart intact but RSI eased. Sideway trades likely for now unless a fresh catalyst emerges. Resistance at 101.80 (50 DMA), 102.60 (38.2% fibo). Support at 100.80 (23.6% fibo retracement of 2025 peak to trough), 99.85 (21 DMA). The next set of US data to watch out for is retail sales, empire manufacturing, industrial production, initial jobless claims and PPI (tonight)."