Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures: New York session hinges on key pivot reclaims

ES holds above value while YM remains below control; NQ sits on the value edge, with gates and pivots defining the next rotation.

US Index futures trading desk — Feb 26, 2026

London – New York session map (YM / ES / NQ)

Today’s setup is clean across all three indices: Dow is still below its control zone, while S&P and Nasdaq are holding closer to value/POC and attempting to repair higher. New York will likely decide whether this becomes a broad-based recovery (all three reclaim CP) or a more selective move led by tech (ES/NQ hold while YM lags).

Cross-index ranking (clarity of the map into New York)

1) S&P 500 (ES) — clearest map
Price is sitting in/above value and above POC, with a very clear decision line at CP 6,963.50 and a defined target at the upper gate 7,005–7,031.

2) Nasdaq (NQ) — clear, but sitting on the edge
Price is holding above POC but right on the lower gate / VAH edge, so the map is clear, but the trade location is more sensitive. Hold the gate, and it can repair to CP; lose it, and the rotation can open quickly.

3) Dow (YM) — weakest / most defensive map
Still below POC + CP, with immediate pressure sitting over the lower gate. Dow needs the most “repair” work to flip the session back to recovery.

Dow Jones Futures (YM) — Daily desk report

Current stage (London session)

As of this update, YM trades 49,416, sitting just under VAL (49,420) and still below POC (49,450) and CP (49,555). That keeps the session defensive unless New York can reclaim control back above the pivot.

Major intraday levels

• Upper range: 50,252.
• Central pivot (CP): 49,555.
• Lower range: 48,923.
• POC: 49,450.
• Value area: VAH 49,460 / VAL 49,420.
• Upper gate: 49,720 – 49,821.
• Lower gate: 49,406 – 49,314.

Structure read

• Below POC + CP, focus remains on the lower gate (49,406–49,314).
• Downside path: a clean break puts 49,239–49,164 in play first, then 49,072 → 48,923.
• Repair path: reclaim 49,450 (POC) then 49,555 (CP) to shift focus back to 49,720–49,821.

Critical note

Intraday CP = Daily CP (49,555) — a true line in the sand today.

S&P 500 Futures (ES) — Daily desk report

Current stage (London session)

ES trades around 6,959, holding above POC (6,950) and on top of value, while still negotiating CP 6,963.50 overhead. This is constructive if New York can accept above CP early.

Major intraday levels

• Upper range: 7,140.50
• Central pivot (CP): 6,963.50
• Lower range: 6,765.00
• POC: 6,950
• Value area: VAH 6,955 / VAL 6,947
• Upper gate: 7,005 – 7,030
• Lower gate: 6,916 – 6,887

Structure read

• Holding above value + POC keeps the recovery intact.
• Two-step recovery: accept above 6,963.50, then build into 7,005–7,030.
• Upper gate is the real test: securing it opens the path toward the upper range 7,140.50.
• Loss of POC/value shifts focus to 6,916–6,888, with 6,864 – 6,765 back in view if selling extends.

Nasdaq Futures (NQ) — Daily desk report

Current stage (London session)

NQ trades around 25,363, sitting on the lower gate (25,358–25,261) and right on the edge of value (VAH 25,362). Price is above POC (25,305) but below CP (25,514).

Major intraday levels

• Central pivot (CP): 25,514.
• Lower range: 24,853.
• POC: 25,305.
• Value area: VAH 25,362 / VAL 25,290.
• Upper gate: 25,653 – 25,739.
• Lower gate: 25,358 – 25,261.

Structure read

• Lower gate is the line in the sand. Hold it, and the recovery stays active; lose it, and rotation risk increases fast.
• Two-step recovery: hold 25,358–25,261, then reclaim 25,514.
• If CP is reclaimed, focus shifts to the upper gate 25,653–25,739, and securing it opens 25,809 → 25,965.
• Failure at the lower gate reopens 25,183 – 25,009 – 24,853.

New York open tell (simple)

• Broad recovery look: ES and NQ accept above their CPs, and YM reclaims 49,555.
• Selective strength look: ES/NQ hold and grind higher while YM stays capped below pivot.
• Defensive look: YM fails the lower gate, and ES/NQ lose value/POC, bringing lower gates into play.

Summary (what matters most today)

• ES has the cleanest map: above value/POC with CP overhead and the upper gate clearly defined.
• NQ is constructive but sensitive: sitting right on the lower gate/VAH edge, so the first hour matters.
• YM is the laggard: still below POC/CP, and needs a pivot reclaim to confirm any broad risk-on tone.

Structure defines context; price reveals response.