Despite Iran denial, US stocks soar on Trump's claim of negotiations

US stocks spiked on Monday morning after US President Donald Trump claimed that negotiations were underway with Iran in an effort to end the nearly one-month war. The NASDAQ Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) both spiked momentarily above 2%, while the S&P 500 gained 1.7%.

Oil futures tanked 9% on the news, edging slightly below $90/barrel, even though most reports suggest Trump's statement is false. The Iranian Foreign Ministry denied that it has been engaged in direct negotiations, and this episode appears similar to another false announcement by the Trump administration earlier in March.

Similarly to last time, rumors abound that enormous positions were taken in the market in the minutes before Trump released his statement to Truth Social, his personal social media platform.

Still, the market believes that Trump's promise to hold off on bombing energy infrastructure for five days might create the space for a lasting peace deal. Trump suggested on Fox Business that the war could wrap up in five days or less. However, an Israeli officials was quoted, "We plan to continue operations while avoiding targeting energy facilities."

S&P 500 chart

The S&P 500 has recovered above the 6,550 former support level at the time of writing. This is a terrific sign for bulls, but they might want to take profits off the table here. That's because last Friday's breakdown of that level means that 6,400 is on the table. The 6,400 round figure hasn't been touched since late September 2025.

For now, traders could hold onto their positions until Oil futures or US Treasury yields reverse higher.