CME Group FedWatch's June hike probability leaped above 80%

Eren Sengezer FXStreet

The solid performance of the U.S. Treasury bond yields on Tuesday boosted the odds for a rate hike in June. CME Group FedWatch tool, which calculates unconditional probabilities of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting outcomes to generate a binary probability tree, now shows that the markets are pricing a probability of 83.1% rate hike in June.

U.S. Treasury bond yields edge higher on Tuesday

Author

Eren Sengezer

FXStreet

As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.

AUD/USD slips below 0.7000 as RBA hike fails to offset US election woes

The Aussie Dollar drifts lower against the US Dollar late on Tuesday as the US midterm elections are underway, while progress toward a potential diplomatic exit from the US-Iran war stalls after Iran denied claims it was close to a deal. The AUD/USD trades at 0.6965, down 0.44%.

USD/JPY fails near 159.00 amid weak USD, intervention risks

USD/JPY edges lower during Tuesday’s Asian session, reversing part of the previous day's gains to 158.00 as the US Dollar remains depressed amid hopes for Iran diplomacy and ahead of US midterm elections. Meanwhile, intervention risks support the Japanese Yen, though the uncertainty over the timing of the next BoJ rate hike caps gains. This keeps the pair confined within a familiar range and warrants caution before placing directional bets.

Gold struggles near $3,900 as traders assess Middle East developments,US election risks

Gold (XAU/USD) loses momentum on Tuesday as Oil prices rebound after the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported a US strike on Iran’s Qeshm Island. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $3,909, down 0.93% on the day.

Ethereum: US-led selling keeps ETH below $2,309 realized price

Ethereum (ETH) faces pressure near $2,300 on Tuesday as it struggles to recover its realized price. The top altcoin fell below its realized price, or investors' average on-chain cost basis, at $2,309 following the $6.3 billion Binance hack last Thursday.

US Dollar Index edges up within range with midterm elections front and centre

The US Dollar Index is picking up from session lows but remains within previous ranges, below 102.00. The Greenback is drawing support from hostilities in Iran and higher Oil prices, but US political uncertainty is capping gains.

The 2% inflation target came from a throwaway remark. It now moves trillions

The Federal Reserve's 2% inflation goal grew out of an off-the-cuff remark by a New Zealand politician in 1988. Bond investors still price long-term US debt as if 2% holds, so a change in how the Fed measures inflation would move markets.