British Pound rallies as weak NFP smashes Fed hike bets
- NFP misses forecasts, with prior months revised sharply lower.
- Fed tightening bets ease as yields pressure the US Dollar.
- Political uncertainty and rumors of intervention keep Cable volatility elevated.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) registers solid gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday after the latest US employment report missed estimates, reducing the chances of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD pair trades at 1.3359, down 0.64%, its highest level over the last ten days.
GBP/USD gains as soft payrolls drag Dollar and yields lower
The US jobs market weakened slightly in June, with Nonfarm Payrolls coming at 57K below estimates of 110K. May's numbers were downwardly revised from 172K to 129K, and April’s data were revised from 179 K to 148 K. The Unemployment Rate ticked lower from 4.3% to 4.2%, but analysts blame it on a decline in labor force participation, which reached 61.5%, the lowest since March 2021.
Money markets adjusted their Fed hawkish bets, with investors expecting just 23 basis points of tightening towards the end of the year, according to Prime Terminal data.
US Treasury yields are aiming lower, with the 10-year T-note yields at 4.461%, down 2 basis points, a headwind for the Greenback. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s performance against a basket of six currencies, is down 0.65% at 100.75.
US Factory Orders contracted in May, due to a decline in commercial aircraft orders, with the numbers dropping to -1.3%, below estimates of -1.8% but down from April’s stellar 5.3% print.
San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly commented that she sees positive signs about the US economy and recognised that higher prices were caused by tariffs and the Oil price shock. She added that the policy is “slightly restrictive,” yet noted that there are scenarios in which the Fed must fight inflation.
In the UK, the economic schedule was absent, but the focus is on Andy Burhnamw, the favorite to succeed the current Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
Traders remain cautious about Cable amid uncertainty over Burnham’s policies. Meanwhile, the GBP remains boosted by the fall in Oil prices and by rumors of Japanese authorities intervening in the foreign exchange markets, as the USD/JPY pair fell from around 162.50 to 160.95 at the time of writing.
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
On the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3362, holding a bearish near-term bias as spot remains capped beneath the cluster of simple moving averages (50, 100 and 200) around 1.3413 and below the descending resistance trend line projected from 1.3522. The pair has slipped away from prior highs while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 54 stays just above its neutral line, hinting at modest rather than aggressive upside momentum that so far fails to overcome the overhead structure.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the triple simple moving average area near 1.3413, with the next barrier coming at the descending trend resistance around 1.3522. On the downside, the key technical floor is the rising support trend line originating near 1.3159, where a decisive break would reinforce the broader bearish tone and expose lower levels, while holding above it would keep the pair bounded in a corrective consolidation under the moving averages.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Pound Sterling Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.47% | -1.13% | -0.50% | -0.07% | -0.56% | -0.97% | -0.98% | |
| EUR | 0.47% | -0.72% | -0.02% | 0.35% | -0.12% | -0.56% | -0.56% | |
| GBP | 1.13% | 0.72% | 0.75% | 1.07% | 0.59% | 0.16% | 0.15% | |
| JPY | 0.50% | 0.02% | -0.75% | 0.41% | -0.08% | -0.38% | -0.52% | |
| CAD | 0.07% | -0.35% | -1.07% | -0.41% | -0.48% | -0.79% | -0.84% | |
| AUD | 0.56% | 0.12% | -0.59% | 0.08% | 0.48% | -0.43% | -0.44% | |
| NZD | 0.97% | 0.56% | -0.16% | 0.38% | 0.79% | 0.43% | -0.03% | |
| CHF | 0.98% | 0.56% | -0.15% | 0.52% | 0.84% | 0.44% | 0.03% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
Author
Christian Borjon Valencia
FXStreet
Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.
