Israel attacks Lebanon as US prepares fresh Iran sanctions

Lallalit Srijandorn FXStreet

Israel has resumed airstrikes against Lebanon in the past few days after scaling back its attacks in the enclave earlier this month, Reuters reported on Sunday.

A day earlier, the Israel Defense Forces stated that it killed Abu Hassan Alaa, a senior Hezbollah commander, in southern Lebanon. The Israeli strikes were the bloodiest since the sides reached a ceasefire at the start of June, with 11 fatalities.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the attacks were in retaliation for a Hezbollah attack injuring three soldiers on Saturday. Israel said on Sunday it would strike the Iranian proxy group again if threatened.

On Friday, US President Donald Trump said that Washington plans to hit Iran’s economy hard and that he didn’t care whether the conflict ends before the November US midterm elections, which will hinge on voter perceptions of the economy.

CNBC reported that US President Donald Trump’s envoys met with Egyptian, Qatari and Turkish mediators in Cairo on Sunday. These developments aim to advance the president’s Gaza peace plan, even as Israel presses on with airstrikes in the enclave.

Hamas officials were present at some of the meetings that mediators held with Trump’s envoy and son-in-law, Jared Kushner, and Trump’s Board of Peace envoy for Gaza, Nickolay Mladenov, the diplomat said.

A senior Israeli official said Trump’s envoy Jared Kushner, and Trump’s Board of Peace envoy for Gaza, Nickolay Mladenov were scheduled to meet on Monday with Netanyahu, who on August 9 said Trump’s latest roadmap for Gaza peace was ‘unacceptable.’

Elsewhere, Trump ordered the Pentagon to scale back its annual drills with South Korea, saying Seoul declined to join in “the denuclearisation” of Iran.

Market reaction

At the time of writing, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is down 0.62% on the day at $81.90.

Risk sentiment FAQs

What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets?

In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.

What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics?

Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.

Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"?

The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.

Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"?

The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.

Author

Lallalit Srijandorn

FXStreet

Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.

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