BoJ Summary of Opinions: Members split on rate hike prospects amid Middle East war

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) published its Summary of Opinions of the March monetary policy meeting, with the key takeaways found below.

One member said appropriate to continue raising interest rates if economic, price forecasts materialise.

One member said monetary condition remain accommodative even after past rate hikes.

One member said the BoJ can keep rates steady this time due to uncertainty over Middle East developments.

One member said timing of future rate hikes would depend on impact of Middle East developments, as well as developments on wages, inflation and financial environment.

One member said appropriate to scrutinise wage, price hike developments from next meeting onward.

One member said the BoJ expected to adjust degree of monetary support without long intervals

One member said must avoid situation where underlying inflation continues to rise above 2%

One member said the BoJ must raise policy rate without hesitation if there are no signs of significant deterioration in economic environment, wave-setting stance of small and midsized firms.

One member said with policy rate still far away from levels deemed neutral, falling behind the curve would compel the BoJ to pursue rapid, significant monetary tightening and cause big shock to economy.

One member said need to consider rate hike taking into account factors such as Middle East conflict, BoJ Tankan, findings revealed at the BoJ’s quarterly regional branch managers' meeting and anecdotal information from firms.

One member said cost-push pressure from high crude oil prices could bring about economic stagnation accompanied by price rises.

One member said when inflation is temporary, basic response would be to wait until cost-push factor dissipates, without taking hasty actions.

One member said monetary tightening could become necessary if cost-push pressure intensifies due to excessively weak yen, or if second-round effect5s become more pronounced and cause bigger-than-expected wage rises.

Ministry of Finance (MoF) representative said hope the BoJ works closely with govt, scrutinize economic developments including impact on Japan’s economy from Middle East conflict.

Market reaction

At the time of writing, USD/JPY is marginally lower on the day at 160.20, having eased from 20-month highs of 160.46 reached in the opening trades.