GBP/USD Price Forecast: Trades below 1.3500 on firmer USD, ahead of UK GDP

GBP/USD remains depressed as oil-driven inflation fears fuel Fed hike bets and support USD.
Traders might refrain from placing aggressive directional bets ahead of the UK Q2 GDP report.
The mixed technical setup warrants caution before positioning for the near-term trajectory.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The GBP/USD pair trades with a negative bias for the second consecutive day and trades below the 1.3500 psychological mark during the Asian session on Thursday amid modest US Dollar (USD) strength. The downside potential, however, seems limited as traders might opt to wait for the UK macro data dump, including the Q2 GDP report, before placing directional bets.

In the meantime, inflation risks stemming from volatile oil prices underpin prospects for a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). This, along with persistent geopolitical uncertainties due to the US-Iran standoff, assists the USD in building on the previous day's bounce from the post-CPI swing low and turns out to be a key factor acting as a headwind for the GBP/USD pair.

From a technical perspective, spot prices, barring the overnight bullish spike, have been oscillating in a one-week-old range. This might be categorized as a bullish consolidation phase against the backdrop of the rally since late July. Moreover, the GBP/USD pair maintains a mildly bullish near-term bias above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart.

However, momentum indicators are less supportive. In fact, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near the neutral 50 line, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is slipping slightly below zero. This, in turn, hints at an extension of the consolidative price action rather than strong near-term directional conviction, warranting caution for aggressive traders.

Meanwhile, further weakness below the current pivot area around 1.3491 might prompt some technical selling and make spot prices vulnerable to accelerating the fall to the 100-period SMA near 1.3415. A sustained defence of these supports would keep the bullish bias intact, while a clean break below would expose a deeper corrective phase for the GBP/USD pair on the four-hour chart.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

GBP/USD 4-hour chart

Economic Indicator

Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly and quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in the UK during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of UK economic activity. The QoQ reading compares economic activity in the reference quarter to the previous quarter. Generally, a rise in this indicator is bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

AUD/USD tests 0.6800 as Fed hawks drive USD to 19-month high

AUD/USD has come under heightened downside pressure, briefly slipping back below the 0.6800 yardstick on Thursday. Indeed, the pair has revisited levels last seen in late January in response to the continuation of the bullish momentum favouring the Greenback, which remained propped up by rising bets over extra Fed tightening.

USD/JPY eases from near 160.00 amid looming intervention risks, BoJ hike bets

USD/JPY retreats slightly from an over two-month high as the recent surge back to the 160.00 psychological mark prompted verbal warnings from Japanese authorities and sparked fears of direct FX intervention. Moreover, data showed that Japan’s wholesale inflation picked up again in October, strengthening the case for a BoJ hike in December and lifting the Japanese Yen. However, a bullish US Dollar, bolstered by odds of a jumbo Fed rate hike in December, could cap the pair's downside.

Gold shifts the focus to $3,800 amid stronger US Dollar

Gold comes under heightened downside pressure, retreating for the third consecutive day and approaching the $3,800 region per troy ounce on Thursday. Increasing speculation of a 50-bps rate hike by the Fed in December continues to weigh on the precious metal amid further gains in US Treasury yields.

Dogecoin Price Forecast: DOGE tests three-year low as selling pressure deepens

Dogecoin (DOGE) trades lower around $0.0650 on Thursday, as bears tighten their grip. The path of least resistance remains downward not only for the largest meme coin by market capitalization but also for crypto majors Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP). DOGE is down about 2.6% on the day, aligning with levels last seen in October 2023.

Nvidia shares crash as Jensen Huang resigns as CEO

Nvidia (NVDA) shares collapsed in Thursday's premarket after longtime CEO and co-founder Jensen Huang resigned as CEO in the face of board scrutiny over several affairs. Nvidia shares have shed 10% at the time of writing as the leading AI chipmaker chose chief financial officer (CFO) Colette Kress as interim CEO.

What the US CPI headline doesn’t tell you about inflation

Brent crude has fallen about a third since mid-October on hopes the Iran war is ending, but diesel, freight and fertiliser costs haven't followed. Those costs reach US consumer prices in stages through 2027 and could keep inflation high after gasoline gets cheaper.