Banxico minutes flag upside inflation risks despite 6.50% rate hold
The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) released its September meeting minutes on Thursday, which showed the central bank holding rates unchanged at 6.50% while acknowledging that inflation risks are tilted to the upside.
Board members highlighted the high level of geopolitical uncertainty stemming from the conflict in the Middle East, making inflation forecasts more difficult.
Key highlights:
Majority board members highlighted the high level of geopolitical uncertainty that has prevailed in the global environment since the previous decision
Majority board members indicated headline inflation expectations for the end of 2026 had decreased
Majority board members the balance of risks regarding the projected inflation path over the forecast horizon remains skewed to the upside
One board member noted that headline inflation is close to the target as a result of fading of relative price adjustments within the non-core component and that core inflation has continued its downward trajectory
Banxico FAQs
The Bank of Mexico, also known as Banxico, is the country’s central bank. Its mission is to preserve the value of Mexico’s currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN), and to set the monetary policy. To this end, its main objective is to maintain low and stable inflation within target levels – at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%.
The main tool of the Banxico to guide monetary policy is by setting interest rates. When inflation is above target, the bank will attempt to tame it by raising rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money and thus cooling the economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. The rate differential with the USD, or how the Banxico is expected to set interest rates compared with the US Federal Reserve (Fed), is a key factor.
Banxico meets eight times a year, and its monetary policy is greatly influenced by decisions of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Therefore, the central bank’s decision-making committee usually gathers a week after the Fed. In doing so, Banxico reacts and sometimes anticipates monetary policy measures set by the Federal Reserve. For example, after the Covid-19 pandemic, before the Fed raised rates, Banxico did it first in an attempt to diminish the chances of a substantial depreciation of the Mexican Peso (MXN) and to prevent capital outflows that could destabilize the country.
Author
Christian Borjon Valencia
FXStreet
Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.
