Australia’s Trade Balance turns positive in April: What 1,791M surplus means for AUD/USD
Australia's Trade Balance shifted to surplus of $1,791M MoM in April, followed a deficit of $1,024M in the previous reading (revised from $1,841M), according to the latest foreign trade data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday. The market consensus was for a surplus of $1,800M.
Further details reveal that Australia's Exports climbed by 7.2% MoM in April from a fall of 2.5% seen a month earlier (revised from -2.7%). Meanwhile, Imports increased by 0.8% MoM in April, compared to a rise of 12.2% seen in March (revised from 14.1%).
The Australian Dollar (AUD) gains modestly following the Australia’s Trade Balance report. The AUD/USD pair is trading at 0.7135, gaining 0.08% on the day. The pair advances in positive territory, but remains close to its weekly low at 0.7130.
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.09% | -0.05% | -0.13% | -0.01% | -0.06% | -0.16% | -0.16% | |
| EUR | 0.09% | 0.03% | -0.02% | 0.08% | 0.00% | -0.16% | -0.06% | |
| GBP | 0.05% | -0.03% | -0.04% | 0.05% | -0.01% | -0.19% | -0.10% | |
| JPY | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.04% | 0.10% | 0.05% | -0.14% | -0.04% | |
| CAD | 0.01% | -0.08% | -0.05% | -0.10% | -0.05% | -0.24% | -0.15% | |
| AUD | 0.06% | -0.01% | 0.00% | -0.05% | 0.05% | -0.16% | -0.07% | |
| NZD | 0.16% | 0.16% | 0.19% | 0.14% | 0.24% | 0.16% | 0.08% | |
| CHF | 0.16% | 0.06% | 0.10% | 0.04% | 0.15% | 0.07% | -0.08% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
What do Australia’s Trade Balance data mean for the Australian Dollar?
Trade Balance gives an early indication of the net export performance. Export data can give an important reflection of Australian growth, while imports provide an indication of domestic demand.
Even though the impact on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy is usually indirect, Australia’s Trade Balance can influence the RBA because it provides insight into the strength of the external sector, economic growth, and national income.
A narrowing trade surplus or unexpected trade deficit may signal weakening export demand or slower growth among key trading partners. This might lead markets to expect a more dovish stance from the Australian central bank. However, if risk sentiment improves, this might help limit the Aussie losses as capital flows toward the riskier assets.
A larger-than-expected trade surplus can signal strong export demand or resilient economy. This report could lead markets to expect that the RBA will hike interest rates or keep them elevated.
Technical Analysis: AUD/USD keeps bullish vibe in near term
In the daily chart, AUD/USD holds above the rising 100-day simple moving average (SMA), keeping the near-term tone constructive despite the recent pullback from last week’s highs. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 47 sits just below the midline, hinting at fading upside momentum but not yet signaling an outright bearish shift while price action remains supported over the medium-term average.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the May 20 low of 0.7087, with a more important floor at the 100-day SMA near 0.7067, where buyers are likely to defend the broader uptrend. On the topside, a daily close well above the 0.7135 area would be needed to reassert bullish pressure and open the way for a retest of recent swing highs, with momentum confirmation from a recovery in the RSI back above the 50 line.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Economic Indicator
Trade Balance (MoM)
The trade balance released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the difference in the value of its imports and exports of Australian goods. Export data can give an important reflection of Australian growth, while imports provide an indication of domestic demand. Trade Balance gives an early indication of the net export performance. If a steady demand in exchange for Australian exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD.
Read more.Last release: Thu May 07, 2026 01:30
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: -1,841M
Consensus: 4,250M
Previous: 5,686M
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
Author
Lallalit Srijandorn
FXStreet
Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.
