Australian Dollar weakens as hawkish RBNZ lifts New Zealand Dollar
- AUD/NZD falls as hawkish RBNZ policy outlooks boosted the New Zealand Dollar.
- RBNZ’s Breman stated that rates are likely to increase sooner and by more than previously signaled to combat persistent inflation.
- Australian Dollar falls as markets slashed expectations for further RBA interest rate hikes.
AUD/NZD depreciates for the third successive day, trading around 1.2020 during the Asian hours on Friday. The currency cross loses ground as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) finds strong support amid growing hawkish sentiment surrounding the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) policy outlook.
According to Reuters, RBNZ Governor Anna Breman stated on Friday that interest rates are likely to increase sooner and by more than previously signaled to combat persistent inflation. While the central bank decided to keep the Official Cash Rate (OCR) on hold at 2.25% during its May meeting on Wednesday, the decision revealed a deeply divided board, with three members voting for an immediate quarter-point hike and three voting to maintain the status quo.
Further reinforcing the New Zealand Dollar’s strength is an uptick in domestic confidence data. The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index rebounded to 86.5 in May, climbing from April's reading of 80.3, which had marked its lowest level since May 2023. Although the index has managed to recover 6 points over the past month, it still remains notably down by 21 points from its peak in January, suggesting that while local consumer sentiment is recovering, it is doing so from a deeply depressed baseline.
In contrast, the Australian Dollar (AUD) is struggling against the New Zealand Dollar as markets sharply scale back expectations for further interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
Investors are reacting to a series of economic indicators suggesting that earlier RBA monetary tightening is successfully filtering through the Australian economy. A softer-than-expected April inflation print, combined with weak consumer spending data and recent signs of a cooling labor market, has prompted market participants to aggressively cut the odds of a June rate hike, dragging the Australian Dollar lower.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
Author
Akhtar Faruqui
FXStreet
Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India. With a keen eye for market trends and a passion for dissecting complex financial dynamics, he is dedicated to delivering accurate and insightful Forex news and analysis.
