Australian Dollar: Watching crosses as RBA nears peak – Rabobank

RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets discusses how the Australian Dollar has been one of the best-performing G10 currencies in 2026, helped by three RBA rate hikes, but notes recent softer Australian data suggest the cycle may be near its peak. The bank expects one more RBA hike, likely in August, and sees AUD/NZD stabilizing, GBP/AUD downside over 3–6 months, AUD/USD higher over 3–12 months, and EUR/AUD range-bound.

Rabobank sees AUD still well positioned

"In view of the rate hikes announced by the RBA and the Norges Bank this year and the swiftness with which both central banks threw off their dovish guidance which had persisted into the end of last year, it is unsurprisingly that the NOK and the AUD are the best performing G10 currencies this year."

"More recently, however, the AUD has fallen back in the rankings with softer domestic economic data suggesting that the central bank’s rate hiking cycle may already be close to a peak."

"In line with the market consensus, it is Rabobank’s view that the RBA is likely to hike rates once more this year, potentially in August."

"Uncertainties about growth and inflation suggest scope for further movements in the weeks and months ahead, but from a relative basis the Australian economy and the AUD still appear well positioned."

"After a correction lower last month, AUD/NZD appears to have already found its feet."

"We also forecast a move higher in AUD/USD on a 3-to-12-month view."

"We expect range trading in EUR/AUD in the coming months."

"While GBP/AUD has remained in a tight range in recent weeks, we would look to sell rallies in anticipation of a move lower on a 3-to-6-month view."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)