Australian Dollar underperforms amid cautious market mood
- The Australian Dollar faces selling pressure amid a risk-off market mood.
- Intensified aggression between the US and Iran has improved the appeal of safe-haven assets.
- The US core CPI is seen rising steadily by 2.9% YoY in June.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) underperforms its major currency peers, trading 0.32% lower to near 0.6930 against the US Dollar (USD) during the early European trading session at the start of the week. The antipodean is under severe pressure as the market sentiment turns risk-averse amid intensifying aggression between the United States (US) and Iran.
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.11% | 0.15% | 0.23% | 0.03% | 0.32% | 0.07% | 0.09% | |
| EUR | -0.11% | 0.04% | 0.11% | -0.08% | 0.22% | 0.00% | -0.00% | |
| GBP | -0.15% | -0.04% | 0.07% | -0.13% | 0.20% | -0.03% | -0.00% | |
| JPY | -0.23% | -0.11% | -0.07% | -0.20% | 0.10% | -0.12% | -0.08% | |
| CAD | -0.03% | 0.08% | 0.13% | 0.20% | 0.31% | 0.11% | 0.13% | |
| AUD | -0.32% | -0.22% | -0.20% | -0.10% | -0.31% | -0.18% | -0.16% | |
| NZD | -0.07% | -0.00% | 0.03% | 0.12% | -0.11% | 0.18% | 0.02% | |
| CHF | -0.09% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.08% | -0.13% | 0.16% | -0.02% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
At press time, S&P 500 futures are down 0.65% to near 7,525, reflecting a risk-off market mood. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.15% higher to near 101.15.
Investors shift to the safe-haven fleet as renewed aggression between the US and Iran has lifted oil prices, a scenario that increases global expenditure on energy significantly and thus reduces governments' investment plans.
"The Aussie Dollar is currently balancing persistent domestic growth concerns against an external environment that has become somewhat more supportive as expectations for further Fed tightening have eased," says Inki Cho, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness. "With relatively few domestic catalysts ahead, broader macroeconomic developments and shifts in monetary policy expectations are likely to remain the key drivers of market sentiment," he adds.
Market participants are also cautious ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh’s testimony, both of which are scheduled on Tuesday.
The US core CPI – which excludes volatile food and energy items – is expected to have grown at a steady pace of 2.9% Year-on-Year (YoY). On a monthly basis, the underlying inflation is seen rising 0.3%, faster than 0.2% in May.
US inflation will likely significantly influence the Fed’s interest rate expectations, as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the June policy meeting showed that policymakers see high inflation as the “dominant risk”.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
Author
Sagar Dua
FXStreet
Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.
